Still Gotta Come Through Chicago
Still Gotta Come Through Chicago
The Bear(s go) Down again at Soldier Field, David Ross, Bulls our only hope
This week in Chicago:
Bears: Sunday at Philadelphia, noon
Bulls: Today at 6 p.m. at New York, Wednesday at Cleveland 6 p.m., Friday 7 p.m. vs. Detroit, Sunday 4 p.m. at Indiana
Blackhawks: Tuesday at Nashville 7 p.m., Saturday at Los Angeles 9:30 p.m., Sunday at Anaheim 7 p.m.
Table of Contents:
Bears recap
Bulls pump-up video and week in review
David Ross back-and-forth between Cooper Rushing and I (@RushingBaseball)
Blackhawks week in review
Historical perspective and Betting pick
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Bears:
We’ll never forget the way you thrilled the nation, with one winning season…
“I knew this team was gutless when I was at the ‘Bears 100’ this summer, they were walking around like they won something.”—Dan Hampton
I’m not sure I’ve seen a public approval rating crash as fast as Matt Nagy’s has over the past month. The true test of a man’s character and coaching ability is how he reacts to adversity, something he’s mouthed off about countless times since the Bears home playoff loss to the Eagles last year. The reality is, he’s failed the test of adversity.
You can look at the loss to the previously 2-win Chargers on Sunday in two ways: The Bears should have won or the Bears deserved to lose. Frankly, the answer is probably both. The Bears had 15 more first downs than the Chargers. They held the ball for 16 more minutes than them, too. The Charger racked up more penalty yards and had less trips to the red zone.
Despite all of that, no one is waking up this morning thinking the Bears got jobbed or that they should have won that game. If they got jobbed, it was an inside one.
The aforementioned team stats and David Montgomery’s 135-yard day would lead you to believe that the Bears had finally played a 60-minute, winning football game. But alas, here we are.
In the Bears five red zone trips, they ran 12 plays. One of those was a pass interference penalty and the other 11 were good for 0.27 yards per play. I don’t care who the quarterback is or how bad the offensive line is—if your head coach and play caller is supposed to be some offensive guru, that is indefensible.
If you view Trubisky for what he is, a bad quarterback, you can’t be mad at today’s performance. By the standards he’s set for himself, the game he played was not all that bad. There were the two bad turnovers, yes, but he did enough for the Bears to win that game. The fact of the matter is that he’s been Nagy’s quarterback for a year and a half now, so if the Chiefs can put up points with a guy that was coaching high school football a few weeks ago (Matt Moore), Nagy should figure out how to do the same with Trubisky.
I just hope Thom Brennaman has recovered from the conniption he had when Trubisky missed Gabriel on that long ball. I don’t think any Bears fans were hopeful before that throw or surprised after it.
1st and Goal from the 4 and Montgomery doesn’t touch the ball once. In field goal range, yet farther away than Pineiro’s first missed kick, and we elect to kneel the ball. Just like Trubisky’s regression, once Matt Nagy takes a step forward, he seems to take two steps back.
He was a media darling this offseason, now he can’t give a postgame press conference without having a mini temper tantrum trying to defend himself.
“Zero thought of throwing the football, zero thought of running the football”—Matt Nagy
The logic (or lack thereof) Nagy seems to be following is that if the Bears were to run more offensive plays, there’d be a chance of them losing yards or turning the ball over. Well, Matt, there’s also a risk that you miss the goddamn kick from where you were at on the field right then, which you did. There was also some pretty solid evidence to prove that risk, considering Pineiro missed a goddamn kick from a shorter distance two goddamn hours earlier.
Matt Nagy doesn’t think he’s an idiot. I don’t either. But if it calls plays like an idiot and gives postgame press conferences like an idiot…
The Bears obsessed over the kicking situation this offseason, operating as if it was the only thing keeping them away from a Super Bowl victory. Through six games, their problems consisted of everything but the kicking. It seems to be poetic justice that a missed field goal ended this one.
I invite you now to remember the hubris around the organization this offseason after achieving one successful season. The Bears head of player personnel was running around saying that Ha-Ha Clinton Dix was far better than Adrian Amos and that Jordan Howard sucked. All of the smartest people worked at Halas Hall, we were told. That stuff is all fun and dandy until you lose a few games. Teams in the NFL adjust to their competitors and progress year to year. The Bears have done neither.
So, is it over? Probably. That doesn’t mean that you and I won’t subject ourselves to this weekly torture again next Sunday. The New York Times’ playoff predictor gives the Bears an 11 percent chance of making the playoffs as it stands today. In order to get that number back above 50 percent, they’d need to win five in a row. That would include beating the Eagles on the road, the Lions at home, the Rams on the road, the Giants at home, and the Lions again on the road. But even if the Bears just won the rest of their home games, they’d have a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to NYT’s model.
I wrote during the week about the possible quarterback options the Bears could go with for this season and next. Considering their current record, trading for someone now would probably be a bad idea. But it’s still a fun exercise and people seemed to enjoy it. You can read that here: The Quarterback Shuffle.
The thread portion should be good this week, as it always is. You all make me laugh and cry every Monday morning with these comments, and I hope it helps us all get through another week.
Post your Bears frustrations here, and what your confidence level is for the rest of the season, from 1-10.
Group Therapy, Week 8 Edition: POST TO THREAD.
I’m most mad that the Bears spoiled Thomas Jones first NFL game since he retired. How can you lose a game after Jones, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Devin Hester, and Brian Urlacher march out of the tunnel waving towels in orange jerseys? Shame on you.
Let me in the locker room next week. I want to let Nagy and co. know what it means to be a Still Gotta Come Through Chicago guy. You don’t tuck tail and run. You go out and win a road game in Philly and you call Detroit after the game and tell them they’re going to have to get through the 4th phase to take our season away from us. Olin Kreutz said it best…
I’m somehow fired up again.
Bulls:
Speaking of being fired up. If anyone ever doubts my dedication to the Chicago sports game, you can show them this video, which I made past midnight on the eve of the Bulls opener. I’m glad to have many of you along for the ride this year that is the Bulls season over for the win total. Some of you got it at 31.5, some 32.5, some 33.5. I’m an all in guy, so we will be operating under the 34 WINS OR BUST motto this year.
And when we do hit 34 wins, we will party as promised. 600+ views and counting on that above video, which will either look like the dumbest thing in the world or the coolest in the springtime.
Follow @stillgottaChi on Twitter.
Here’s my Game One recap with my dog, Rex, getting a cameo. Rex is a huge Still Gotta Come Through Chicago guy.
Rookie Coby White is saying and doing all the right things. He’s averaging nearly 17 points per contest thus far— a very encouraging sign. The Hornets loss stung, particularly because, as discussed above, the Bulls were up 10 late despite getting outshot from three-point range by over 40 points.
Then there was a great, come-from-behind win in Memphis, one in which Coby White outplayed #2 overall pick Ja Morant. And the Raptors loss, well, that’s to be expected. They’re the defending champions and we’re a team making hype videos over winning 34 games. Or maybe that’s just me.
The next four are all winnable games (Knicks, Cavs, Pistons, Pacers) and I’d love to win at least three of them. Speaking of the Pistons, Derrick Rose is averaging over 25 points per game.
If the Bulls are going to win at a higher clip this year, the three-point shooting will need to improve, from a defensive and offensive perspective. They’re shooting just 28 percent from deep thus far, and their opponents are shooting over 41 percent. That right there is the difference between winning and losing.
Baseball:
This week’s baseball section is a back-and-forth between baseball genius and SGCTC correspondent Cooper Rushing (@RushingBaseball) and I on the David Ross hiring.
Me: So, David Ross it is. I think there’s a misconception in the larger Chicago media landscape that the Cubs fans disappointed with the Ross decision are so because they wanted Joe Girardi. I don’t think that’s the case. I was personally intrigued with Joe Espada (Astros bench coach) as a candidate right off the bat because of his experience and his ability to represent a complete change of pace in the organization without sacrificing personal relationships. He’s coached in myriad roles and and seems like a likable guy. You also played a major role in convincing me with your write-up in the newsletter two weeks ago.
Who knows how each player would react to Espada or Ross, but I do feel there’s a human element to not worrying about succeeding as much when the guy in charge is a former teammate (only three years removed) and was a career .229 hitter. If Theo Epstein and co. were being genuine when they said they needed to move on from 2016, this move makes no sense. I believe Ross was an incredible leader in the clubhouse (in fact, that part is indisputable), but there is also a difference between being a leader as one of the guys and being a leader of the guys.
There’s part of me that believes that Epstein (who I am—and always will be—happy with as the head of baseball operations for the Cubs) thought hiring Espada would be admitting that the Astros had in some ways passed the Cubs by (they have), and admitting that the Cubs need organizational help (they do).
Hiring a guy that has played under Epstein’s watch and has been a part of the front office for a few years is a safe move, but also one that feels like mowing the lawn when the house is on fire. I’m not naïve enough to think that any manager alone is going to turn things around, I just feel like Espada being hired would be a first step in turning things around.
Cooper Rushing: I'm a bit more optimistic about the hire especially as a guy who was begging for Espada, although I don't completely disagree with your point of view.
I could see how it seems like hiring Ross is a cop out. But let’s keep something in mind: he was hired as a Cubs special assistant in 2017. While his exact involvement is unclear, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the front office has been grooming him for this role for years now—especially because the front office and Maddon haven't always seen eye to eye. At minimum, Ross has been exposed to new ideas and has seen the front office's plans and goals for how they want their team to operate.
As a catcher, Ross literally made a living earning respect from pitchers entrusting their careers to his decision making. And believe me, Lester wasn't bringing Ross along with him when he signed with the Cubs just because they're buddies, he fully trusted that Ross would give him the best chance to succeed. And it's not just about his chemistry with the current Cubs clubhouse. Ross has respect of many really smart and successful people around the game. A Fangraphs article in February 2016 asked players and personnel within the industry to name which current players would make the best managers. A lot of them praised Ross, notably Astros manager AJ Hinch who mentioned Ross's "knowledge, heartbeat, temperament" as well as the way he "seems to have command of the room".
Me: I agree that Ross is a good candidate to be a manager. I guess that my point is that I would rather not have him in the position the Cubs are in—right here, right now. I'm sure that others fall on the opposite end of that argument, that Ross is the perfect guy for this situation. I will say, the meatball in me got annoyed by his media tour after the World Series victory, but I've since gone back on that. Make the money while you can and while people know who you are, and don't return to the shadows just because someone like me was slightly annoyed.
But back to the hire. Others have made this comparison, but it feels a bit like the Bulls hiring Hoiberg. Everyone knew Thibs was gone and they had their Iowa State guy in Hoiberg waiting. No real interview process took place, they just made a show of it and went with their guy. At least they did a better job of disguising it than the Bulls, who did the same thing with Jim Boylen. In both cases it seems like a sign of hubris, whether it's the right hire or not.
My question is: If Ross doesn't hit that homer in the World Series (and the Cubs subsequently don't win the World Series), is he still a candidate?
Cooper Rushing:
I think he would be. Chicago wouldn't like him as much, but even signing him as a free agent they knew they what kind of person and leader they were bringing on board.
Overall though I completely understand the concerns. It's fair to wonder how he will transition from teammate/friend to boss. It's fair to question his experience. It's fair to think there were better candidates. But at the end of the day, I truly believe team talent prevails.
Here's what the kids might call a hot take: I don't think managers matter as much as we think. They matter a ton when things are negative—when you lose the clubhouse, when talent is being held back, when you lack accountability (hello Mickey Callaway). However, if you have a winning roster with strong veteran leadership, the manager just needs to provide guidance along the way. He needs be a conduit from front office - to clubhouse - to field - who establishes a winning culture while keeping an open mind. And that's all Ross has to do to overcome the concerns above.
Me: Wouldn’t the counter to that be that the Cubs were not a winning team last year and that they don’t have strong veteran leadership?
I also wonder if this is a move to save face if the Cubs don’t go all in on competing this year. David Kaplan reported that the Cubs were “taking a step back” this year and that was one of the reasons for this move. If you have Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant all on your team and all on team-friendly deals, I have no idea why that strategy would make any sense. But “taking a step back” may just mean that they won’t go after, say, Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon. I don’t think a lot of people were expecting them to do that anyway.
Either way, I doubt Theo and Jed are making any moves just to save face and I trust every move they make is made because they believe is going to improve the team’s chances of winning. But I will understand fans’ frustrations if Ross is just a more submissive Maddon and the Cubs don’t get markedly better next year.
I agree that the manager’s influence is usually overstated. But it was blatantly clear (for the wrong reasons) that they can make a big difference game-to-game if they aren’t making the right decisions or are trotting out AAAA players in the middle of a playoff race.
Hey, and maybe Ross being a puppet isn’t the worst thing in the world if he is that conduit from the front office, and the front office knows what they’re doing like we think they do. Maybe all this does is remove some of the bad in-game and pregame decisions Maddon made last year and the Cubs are marginally better because of it. That wouldn’t be so bad.
Cooper Rushing: That's my hope. And in terms of last year, the Cubs had injuries and roster holes across the board. I do really believe they had the veteran leadership in the clubhouse, but Maddon's shtick can get old. This was something we even heard from Tampa Bay's fans and media before he departed for Chicago.
I don't buy Kaplan's report about "taking a step back" one bit. Theo, Jed, McLeod are only under contract the next two seasons and given the size of their market, the incoming TV deal, and the makeup of the roster, it makes no sense to punt 2020. I fully expect them to make some substantial moves, and even if isn't Rendon or Cole, they can get creative with ways to optimize the roster. Free agency is deep this year, as well as the trade pool of rental players that are rumored to be on the market.
Perhaps Kap heard a rumor about using some of their younger role players in moves to strengthen their farm and it snowballed from there. Whatever the case, the timing doesn't line up. They need to put Ross in a good scenario where the veterans are all competing for 2020, and taking a step back would present a negative atmosphere in the clubhouse - putting Ross in a very tough position.
—END—
I’ve always liked David Ross and the only reason I was upset with the hiring was because I wanted Espada. That, and I guess that I wanted a more symbolic passing of the torch from the old Cubs to a new regime with a new attitude in 2020. Ross feels like we’re still holding onto 2016. But I’ve calmed down in the last few days. As Cooper put it, Ross was going to be a coveted manager candidate no matter what. If he can lead as effectively as he did on the field and the front office can ensure that the gaffes Maddon made are minimized, the Cubs will be in good shape.
Comment your thoughts on the hiring on this week’s thread:
Do you like the David Ross hiring? Comment here.
Blackhawks:
The Hawks beat the Kings, 5-1, last night to put an end to a pretty terrible week otherwise.
Before that win, the Hawks had lost all three games on the week, including to particularly awful losses to the Flyers and Hurricanes.
Here was Head Coach Jeremy Colliton after the loss to the Flyers:
The Hawks are 3-5-2 despite only playing one true road game up until this point. They haven’t looked like a good team thus far, and definitely not like a playoff team. Hopefully this week’s slate allows them to turn things around a bit.
Historical perspective:
A great photo from the 1938 World Series between the Yankees and Cubs. The game was played in less than two hours.
Deeper dive coming next week for the historical perspective…
Betting pick:
A push from the Bulls this past week at +1. Remember to get these in earlier in the week before the lines move. Record: 14-8-1.
The NBA is back and that’s a good thing for the bettors of SGCTC. The 2018-2019 NBA season was a fruitful one for us.
This week’s pick: Miami Heat at home Tuesday -5 against the Hawks
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