Still Gotta Come Through Chicago
Still Gotta Come Through Chicago
Week 28—Cubs and Sox winters, Bulls back?, Blackhawks win, and much more
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This week in Chicago:
Bears: Sunday at 3:25 vs. Saints on FOX
Blackhawks: Friday at 7:30 vs. Blue Jackets, Sunday at 6:00 vs. Capitals
Bulls: Last preseason game on Thursday at 7:00 vs. Hawks
In this week’s special bye week edition of the newsletter:
This week’s thread topic, the premise explained in the intro
Chicago sports trivia throughout
Cubs section: Two must-read opinions on what the Cubs should to do in the offseason, courtesy of DOM Frederic (@DOM_Frederic) and Cooper Rushing (@RushingBaseball)
Sox section: Two must-read opinions on what the Sox should to this offseason, courtesy of Sox Machine’s Patrick Nolan (@SoxMach_pnoles) and Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) from CBS and The Athletic
Bulls week in review
Blackhawks week in review
Chicago sports history highlight and betting pick for the week
*The new audio portion with Tom Fornelli of CBS is excellent and will be out on Wednesday. We covered the best bets, both in the East and West, for the Big Ten moving forward.
This is a special edition of the newsletter, the opportunity provided by the Bears’ bye week. As a younger lad, I despised bye weeks. Now, a day of football mostly void of stress imposed by my favorite team is a welcomed break. Just as the offense, defense, and special teams need a rest—so does the fourth phase. I hope you refueled, because we’re staring down a three-month gauntlet, filled with 11 teams that make up the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL.
But let’s rewind to those days of being a younger lad engaged in the sports world for this week’s thread, one I hope all of you will participate in. What’s a Chicago sports moment you have engrained in your head that’s not all that important? Perhaps important isn’t a good word there. But, for instance, the Cubs or Sox winning the World Series doesn’t qualify. If you remember where you were and exactly what you were doing when Kosuke Fukudome hit his first home run in a Cubs uniform, that would qualify. If you can remember what you were doing when he got his first hit (never homered) in a White Sox uniform, that’d really be something. It can be that obscure, but it doesn’t have to be.
Mine is Derrick Rose’s first playoff game ever. I remember that entire 2009 series against the Celtics in an oddly vivid way. It was one of the best playoff series of all time, with the Celtics eventually winning in seven, but that still doesn’t justify the storage I have allotted in my memory for those two weeks. For whatever reason, my recollection of Derrick Rose’s 36-point and 11-assist playoff debut is as clear today as it was the day after it happened.
I was the starting pitcher (yes sir) in a Pony preseason game. I walked the first batter and he stole second. I was the kind of guy that threw over to first to keep the runner honest and the entire opposing dugout would yell, “Not his best!”, as in not my best pick-off move. Let me tell ya, it absolutely was my best. Two outs later, and he had reached third on a passed ball. Before striking out the last batter of the inning, I threw another ball that got past the catcher (hope you’re reading this, Sam) and I forgot to cover home. One inning pitched, one run. Whatever.
I include that synopsis and I say “whatever” because I remember thinking during the game that I couldn’t wait to get home to watch Rose and the Bulls. The excitement I had that day for a basketball game has probably been rivaled a few times, though I can’t remember when. I caught a ride home and turned on the game before I did anything else. I threw a home run inn pizza in the microwave (that’s how eager I was, no time to wait for the crust to gain crispiness), and sat down on the couch. I was so amped that I kept my baseball pants and socks on throughout the game, standing up every time Ben Gordon or John Salmons launched a three. And I marveled at Rose’s performance. Whenever I watch highlights of that game, I view them as if I’m still by myself on that family room couch, an unfazed kid obsessed with the Bulls, positive that the Cubs were going to win the World Series later that year and that the Bulls would be a contender for the next ten.
These weird little memories are sort of how I break up my life. I know how old I was in a given time period based on how my Chicago sports teams were doing. I mention these irrelevant details only because I’m astounded at the fact that I do remember them. There’s not a lot of other events in the course of my life that have a shelf saved for them still in the closet of my brain that collects these things.
The only other one that comes to mind—a relatively minor sports moment that I remember every trivial detail from—was the “Bush Push” in 2005. That one I remember mostly because my dad fired the clicker (remote, channel changer, whatever) across the room and shattered it, and we were left scattering to pick up the pieces before my mom got home to see the remnants.
So if you will, indulge me on your, let’s call it “Inconsequential Engraved Memory.”
That’s this week’s thread—post here. Next week’s newsletter will include my favorite moments from the thread. The more details, the better. If you don’t post on this thread you’re going to end up like Anthony Davis. And if you don’t know what that means, I hope you’re new.
Post here. If you’ve never posted, the process is pretty simple, I promise.
If you’re eager to get to the contributors from this week for the baseball section, I don’t blame you. I’ll remind you to post at the bottom.
I tried to gather some of the smartest folks possible to give their wish lists for the baseball offseason in Chicago. They did not disappoint. Thanks again to these guys for contributing to Still Gotta Come Through Chicago. If you haven’t followed them yet, now is a good time to do so.
Cubs offseason, courtesy of DOM Frederic (@DOM_Frederic) and Cooper Rushing (@RushingBaseball)
Key: Blast sensors: According to Blast’s website— The industry’s most accurate swing analyzer, integrated with automatic assessments, insights, player – coach communication and information / player management tools.
FIP: (FanGraphs)—Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a player's ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.
DOM Frederic’s offseason wishes:
Going into this offseason, I could write about who the Cubs need to acquire, let go, and give more playing time to. While this is most definitely important, it’s the micro aspect of an organization that is trying to figure out a macro problem. That problem being: how can it supplement this roster with value that doesn’t require breaking the bank every winter? How can we (yes, I’ll still use we sometimes in more formal writing) boost capital with the players we already have and the players the Cubs will eventually draft? This all comes down to player development. I’ve talked about this a lot over the last few years but have never really dove into it as much as I could have because twitter threads are strenuous and lose interest quickly. But what doesn’t lose interest, the wrong kind of interest, is seeing the Cubs bullpen ranking at the bottom third in fastball velocity over the past few years. Or making matters even more troubling, that the fastball velocity in the Cubs bullpen has stayed stagnant from ’15 through ’19.
Now, why does this matter?
Considering the bullpen has the highest turnover of pitchers coming from the minor leagues, it often shows underlying themes of what is going on at A, AA, and AAA. For example, the Cubs brought up Wick, Weick, Ryan and Mills who all featured very effective breaking balls, which occurred from their work at the new Cubs Pitch Lab. But coming back to velocity, in ’15, the Cubs bullpen ranked 5th in all of baseball in terms of fastball velocity at 93.7 MPH. In ’19, the Cubs bullpen ranked 26th in all of the baseball with a fastball velocity of 93.1 MPH. A consistent number, but with context, tells the theme of what has happened to the Cubs. The league has produced velocity while the Cubs have stayed the same and have felt the effects. Now, one can point out that fastball velocity is an elementary way to judge production. While this is true, it represents the lack of attention the organization has given to player development, specifically in this area. Velocity plays a huge role in deciding a pitchers success. As you can see from the chart below, ERA, K%, RA9 and FIP, as well many other statistics, are often dependent on velocity.
(Driveline Baseball, https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/04/value-developing-velocity-minors/)
The more velocity you can keep and, even better, develop, creates better results. Hence, why stagnant fastball velocity production from the Cubs bullpen, and pitching staff in general, matters. This leads to my overarching theme of what has gone on with the Cubs. Now, everyone can talk about analytics and Theo potentially not implementing them. I actually find this not to be true. I believe the Cubs have used analytics on the Major League level well and will continue to do so, but they haven’t matched their analytical department with a data-driven player development infrastructure that gets the most out of what analytics has proven to work and what doesn’t in the game. We all know 4-seam fastballs, with high spin rates and spin efficiency works at the top of the zone. It’s why the Astros have tossed out the 2-seam fastball across the organization, from the top, down. It’s why Houston’s minor league coaches, well, **HIGHLY advise pitchers to use outside grip agents** (I’ll leave it at that for the time being). Spin to win, literally. This is great, but if you haven’t developed an organizational foundation and system to develop velocity, you can’t utilize that 4-seam fastball at the top of the zone. You can’t pitch like the Astros, Dodgers and Rays do. You can’t take a pitcher who was under valued in college because he doesn’t have ideal velocity but has pitch-ability and command, and turn him into a productive arm because you never developed the velocity on the back end to take him to the next level. Then on the other end, how is the organization supporting the Dillion Maples or formerly Carl Edwards Jr’s, who couldn’t command a fastball but had a good one? Are command balls being used? Is there a program in place to maximize the players that HAVE the velocity? How in depth are those programs and how long do they take to accomplish the player’s/organization’s goal? Who is in charge of it? How is it monitored and tracked? Or are you just throwing those pitchers back in the minors so they can “figure it out” on their own and hope it works? Same thing can and should be said about a velocity development plan. Again, I’m speaking in generalities, but this attention to detail is exactly what the Cubs have been lacking. The ways of the good ole boys, show and go approach ain’t cutting it anymore. The Cubs have been notorious for drafting high floor, low ceiling pitchers in the draft in recent years. This is fine, but if you don’t have the velocity development infrastructure in place, there is a reason many of these draftees haven’t amounted to anything, which has been obviously documented. It’s why, as previously stated, the bullpen velocity has stayed the same, but drastically decreased in terms of its rank amongst the rest of baseball. When you tie this with many accounts of the Cubs “restricting throws (counting throws), distance (approximately 180 ft)” while changing their philosophy from being one of the more progressive developmental organizations to one of the more conservative organizations, it adds up to what we see today across all levels of Cubs baseball. Hence, why Theo immediately came out and addressed that there will be Directors of Hitting and Pitching hired, which are and have been real positions, but because of conservative practices by the organization, are finally now becoming relevant with the Cubs.
While the micro, short term changes that have to be made on the big league level are critical, if this organization wants to produce on a year in, year out basis, a data-driven infrastructure has to be put in place. A system that requires velocity to be developed, that requires pitch design to happen AT ALL LEVELS, that is unanimously agreed upon from the big league front office all the way down to an international training complex. While the pitch lab is great, is every pitching coach on the same page with what is going on there? Is every coach in agreement on velocity development and know HOW to implement a velocity development program and continuously train this skill? And I haven’t even touched the hitting side where the organization does not require players to use Blast sensors during in game at-bats, while the data-driven organizations like the Astros require it. Not to mention I’ve been told the Cubs use bat sensors “1 to 2 times every couple months” (?!?!). It’s this type of change that has to occur to keep this team competitive by truly building from within, year after year. Not just when you’re going through a rebuild. Now, while I’ve been told on many occasions recently that the Cubs are trying to make these changes and are actively trying to build this data-driven infrastructure quickly and hire more progressive coaches and analysts, the real test will be how quickly the Cubs can implement this cohesive, productive and cutting edge system across the organization while other teams continue to improve in this area where they have already thrived.
DM if you want more in depth, drawn out thoughts/“articles” from me like this one. Thanks again for reading and supporting. not leaving. cubs in 4.
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Cooper Rushing’s offseason wishes:
Cubs manager—simply, who should get the job and why?
If I had my choice, I would hire Joe Espada. One glance at his resume and you can see why so many teams want to interview him for their manager vacancies.
1996 Drafted by A's 45th overall
2006 Marlins Class-A - Hitting Coach
2007 Marlins Class-A-Advanced - Hitting Coach
2008-2009 Marlins Minor League - Infield Coordinator
2010-2013 Marlins - Third Base Coach
2013 Puerto Rico National Team World Baseball Classic - Coach
2014 Marlins Class-A Advanced - Manager
2015 Yankees Front Office - Special Assistant to GM Brian Cashman
2016 Yankees - Infield and Third Base Coach
2016 Gigantes de Carolina (LBPRC Winter Ball) - Manager
2017 Puerto Rico National Team World Baseball Classic - Coach
2018 Astros - Bench Coach
Espada’s long history of versatile roles within the industry has caught the eye of some of the brightest minds in the game. His nearly annual promotions with the Marlins are telling, especially considering he was poached by the Yankees and then again by the Astros.
He is one of the few candidates that has playing experience, managerial experience, MLB clubhouse experience, front office experience, AND is bilingual. Clearly he would be very capable of being a conduit from the front office to the clubhouse and has inside knowledge of how two of the best MLB organizations operate. It also doesn't hurt that he was a coach for Puerto Rico in the 2017 WBC - a team that had Javier Baez on its roster.
Cubs-related Fun Facts:
Espada was the hitting coach for former Cub Chris Coghlan two seasons before he won the NL ROY.
While Espada worked as Marlins third base coach, former Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde and former Cubs hitting coach John Mallee each occupied their same roles with the Marlins.
Any other in-house changes they need to make (development side, etc)?
The Cubs definitely need to make some changes to their scouting and development departments. They have already done so by moving Jason McLeod to a new role and will be searching for new voices and leaders to lead their scouting department. Additionally, the Cubs seem to have expressed willingness to revamp their pitching development when reports leaked that they made an offer to Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball before he was hired by the Reds. Brian Bannister, who just received a promotion with the Red Sox, was someone to target to oversee major and minor league pitching development. He is off the table for now, but the Cubs should be looking at candidates like Bannister who are thinking outside the box in pitching development.
Why should they trade x and not trade y?
The only players that should be untouchable are Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant. I understand fans wanting to trade Bryant given that there is only two years left on his contract and likely won't be re-signing in Chicago, but I don't see a team giving the proper value that makes the Cubs better long term and within their current contention window. The Cubs should be upgrading around the core of their roster - guys like Jose Quintana, Kyle Schwarber, David Bote, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, etc should all be in play to be traded. Others like Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras are less likely to be moved but could bring in a more substantial return and should at least be in discussions.
What kind of signings do they make and what prospects do they need to bring up (if any)?
The two main free agents are Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole. It will depend entirely on their financial situation and the moves made before these two are signed to see if the Cubs can be players for either.
My favorite target is free agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama who is currently playing in the NPB in Japan. The dude gets on base (career .376 OBP!), has speed, and a great glove - all three aspects the Cubs need to focus on this offseason. He is 31 years old, so he shouldn't command a huge contract and he won't be a MLB star, but he can be a solid contributor immediately and might just be a perfect fit.
The Cubs will have a lot of money coming off the books with players leaving via free agency, declined options, non-tenders, so they should hopefully have the flexibility to add where they need to, especially in the bullpen. Will Harris, Dellin Betances, Collin McHugh, Hector Rondon, Sergio Romo, Chris Martin, and Drew Pomeranz are all relievers to keep an eye on.
If the Cubs pull off a blockbuster trade and move Willson Contreras, the ideal candidate to replace him is free agent Yasmani Grandal. Grandal continues to be one of the most underrated players in baseball. He is among the best framing catchers in the game and consistently gets on base while slugging near .500 the last four seasons. He would be a great pair with Victor Caratini who has also made huge improvements in his pitch receiving skills.
In terms of prospects, the hope is that Nico Hoerner will start Opening Day for the Cubs at second base. However, I think they should wait and make sure he has a solid spring to earn the job. And it shouldn't have anything to do with Spring Training stats, it should be about fundamentals and taking good at-bats. Aside from Hoerner, Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay, Duane Underwood, Danny Hultzen, James Norwood, Dakota Mekkes, Tyson Miller, Corey Abbott, and Michael Rucker all deserve extended looks to make the team out of camp. The Cubs have been reluctant in the past to allow any of their prospects stick in the bullpen. If they can strengthen the top of their ‘pen, then they should give a few low leverage spots to some of their youngsters.
Trivia: Tim Anderson just won the batting title, but his average this year (.335) is not in the top 10 for a single season in White Sox history. Only one player post-1936 appears on that list. Who is the player?
Answer at end of White Sox section…
Sox offseason, courtesy of Patrick Nolan (@SoxMach_pnoles) and Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli)
Patrick Nolan’s offseason wishes:
My ideal offseason involves bringing in at least one of the top two free agents: Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon.
If Rendon is signed, the Sox might have to push Yoan Moncada (or Rendon himself) to right field, but it'd be worth it to get his bat in the lineup. They would then have to address the pitching staff. Jake Odorizzi, Zack Wheeler, or Madison Bumgarner are reasonable targets here. Finally, I think Mitch Moreland would be a good target as a platoon 1B/DH that could help offset the lineup’s tilt to the right and give the Sox a weapon against right-handed pitchers.
If Cole is signed, the Sox would need to address their right field issue. Of the most frequently discussed options, I prefer Marcell Ozuna to Nicholas Castellanos. Ozuna’s not a good outfielder, but at least he is an outfielder. Castellanos should never wear a glove. Again, Moreland fits well as a patch for the lefty DH under this plan.
In any event, the Sox should be ready to promote Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert early in the season to give their newly reinforced roster the best chance to compete.
Tom Fornelli’s offseason wishes (edited for clarity from the audio portion):
I would throw a bunch of money at Gerrit Cole. I would go back in time and sign Bryce Harper. It’s funny to me… what do the White Sox need this year? Wow, they could really use a left-handed bat in right field. Geez, it’s too bad there wasn’t one of those guys just available last year.
But, no, I think they need to supplement their roster. That’s pretty simple. Gerrit Cole is obviously going to be very, very in demand this offseason. I feel like he’s either going to end up in LA, New York, or stay in Houston. So even if the White Sox throw a lot of money at him, I don’t think they’re going to get him. So that’s probably wishful thinking.
I think they need to supplement that starting rotation, because there are still too many questions and guys coming off of injury. If you’re serious about competing, as we see with the teams that are in the playoffs now, it’s not just the guys at the top of the roster. It’s the depth below it. The Dodgers seemingly pull guys out from everywhere who play well. They have a ton of depth. They have guys they can trade, but they don’t trade, and hold onto. The Astros do the same thing.
Eloy Jimenez looks like he’s going to be a stud. Tim Anderson won the batting title, but obviously those numbers are going to come down. But he’s still a plus player at shortstop. Yoan Moncada might be the best player on the team. Luis Robert could end up being a superstar as well. So there’s a lot of guys at the top, it’s just once you get below it, there’s a whole lot of crap. And I think they need to supplement that crap. They’re going to have to sign a corner outfielder, whether it’s Marcel Ozuna, or a Yasiel Puig, or a Nick Castellanos. Or they need to trade for someone. They need someone to play right field. They need a real DH. And they need major league average players across the field, and need to have a bench that’s useful. You can’t have Leury Garcia as your everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter when he’s got like an OBP of .310. That’s just not going to work. You need quality players.
I don’t think there’s any quick fixes this winter as far as the free agency pool is concerned, because there’s really not a ton of great, big-name free agents, which is why I feel like last winter was such a disaster for them. To finish in second by 50 million for Manny Machado and then never get in on Bryce Harper, when he was clearly a need—I think they’re probably going to regret that. But I do think and hope they are going to spend this offseason. They need everything to go right and they need to keep everyone healthy.
And I think they probably need to adapt to the modern game…. the development process. You know that all of the things those teams are doing (Dodgers, Astros, etc.) that are leading to their success, the White Sox aren’t doing. It’s not just like a talent thing. It’s what they do for the talent behind the scenes. There’s a reason that every single prospect the Astros bring up seems to be awesome. You know what I mean? They’ve got a little formula they’ve figured out that they’re working with that teams like the White Sox probably just view as an unnecessary expense.
Trivia answer: Frank Thomas appears twice on the list—at 6th (.353—1994) and 10th (.349—1996)
Trivia: The Bulls won 6 championships in the ‘90s, broken up into two three-peats. How many players from team that won the first championship of the original three-peat (1990-1991) were also on the team for the first championship of the second three-peat (1995-1996)?
Answer at the end of the Bulls section…
Bulls:
Is it good that the Bulls—and critically important players on the Bulls—have played well this preseason? Yup. But is it good that they’ve looked competent enough at times to convince us that they may make a run at the 7th or the 8th seed? Nope.
Is it good that the Bulls are assisting on more made baskets and shooting more threes than they did last season? Yup. Is it good that Jim Boylen prefaces statements to the media by saying “I know everyone thinks I’m a dummy…”? Nope.
Are the Bulls a legitimate playoff contender? Yup. Has the organization done anything that would lead us to believe they can compete for 82 games and not have a key player get injured for a significant period? Nope.
Do I think most people won’t get this E-40 reference? Yup! Do I care? Nope!
We’re just eight days away from the season opener at Charlotte against probably the worst team in the league for the 2019-2020 season.
Then we’ll find out if the Bulls upward trend is for real.
You a loser? Nope. Winner? Yup.
Trivia answer: Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan were the only two players that were on the roster for the ‘90-’91 season and the ‘95-’96 season.
Trivia: Patrick Kane had the highest point total of his career last year with 110 in 81 games played. In what year did he have his second best total, and how many did he have in that year?
Answer at end of the Blackhawks section…
Blackhawks:
That was a massive win for the Blackhawks (1-2-1) last night against the previously undefeated Edmonton Oilers. The Hawks had stumbled out of the gate, losing in Prague by a goal to the Flyers, losing to San Jose by a goal, and then losing in overtime (by a goal, obviously) to Winnipeg on Saturday.
The good news is that the Hawks have gotten rid of the egg in the win column. They also will continue a bizarre schedule to the start of the season, which has them playing four more games at home (besides Prague, they’ve been home for every game thus far) before heading to Carolina on Saturday.
Sometimes it’s hard not to gloss over the fact that this Hawks team is still relatively new. Sure, there’s plenty of familiar faces, but Jeremy Colliton is essentially a rookie head coach with a brand new staff, and there were plenty of offseason acquisitions. The next four home games give them a chance to find their footing before the road tests get underway.
Patrick Kane is unsurprisingly leading the team in points through four games, and Dylan Strome and Andrew Shaw are tied for the best +/- mark at 4.
Trivia answer: Kane had 106 points in 2015-2016
Historical perspective:
Usually we’ll go a bit deeper on a Chicago sports history angle here, but for this week, these two must-watch videos will do:
Wrigley Field, 1937. Looks the same, besides the circus that came into town a few years ago and hasn’t left.
And to one of the best #SGCTC figures of all time, Dick Butkus.
You’d go back in time to see dinosaurs. I’d go back in time to watch Butkus play for the Bears.
Betting pick: The mini-streak came to a screeching halt this weekend with the 49ers beating the Rams outright. No excuses here, but if I could’ve given the pick out after Monday Night’s 49ers-Browns game, I wouldn’t have picked the Rams. Oh well. 14-7 on the newsletter.
This week’s pick:
Bears -3. Buy the .5 point to get it down to 2.5 if you must.
Don’t forget to post on this week’s thread, whether it’s a response to the contributors’ offseason wishes, posting your inconsequential engraved sports memory, or just a response to the newsletter in general. Things got a little lengthy this week. We’ll return to the normal length and schedule with a full recap of the Bears game on Monday.
Follow SGTC on Twitter at @stillgottaChi
A million thanks for reading and two million thanks for telling your friends to subscribe. Next week’s letter will be the best one yet. Until then… STILL GOTTA COME THROUGH CHICAGO!