Still Gotta Come Through Chicago

Are the Bulls Buyers or Sellers?

Happy Friday Chicagoans.

Thanks for coming back and reading last week after a long hiatus. If you enjoy the newsletter please do consider telling someone to subscribe today:

Last Friday, we got into the Bears and Cubs offseasons, the former of which is just getting started. Shocking News: this week, a report suggested the Bears will keep Justin Fields and trade the no. 1 overall pick. I’m stunned. Anyway, you can read that newsletter here. Next week, we’re getting into prospect rankings and more Sox-related conversation. Plus, there will be noteworthy developments elsewhere.

We’ve got a lot to get into today. Grab your cup of coffee and start the weekend off right. Let’s get to it.

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The NBA trade deadline is less than a week away. No one has any idea what the Bulls are going to do. I know what I think they should do, but we’ll get to that a little bit later.

Tanking… ah, tanking.

Tanking reminds me a lot of 23-year-olds discovering red wine. At first, it’s innocent. It’s new. It provides some joy in an otherwise awful time, where you go from attending a college class per day — if that — to working for The Man every day, all day.

That cheap red wine offers you a little glimpse into what could be a really fun night. You could get the french phenom Victor Wembanyama. But in all likelihood, you’ll just end up gaining 15 pounds without realizing it and have a headache four out of the seven days of the week. Next thing you know, you’ll be 30.

And then — worse yet, boom — you’re an alcoholic. A little wine on Wednesday never hurt anyone, they said, until you’re drinking out of a flask in the office bathroom after being laid off from your job. Your wife’s calling, too, and she needs you to get someone to fix a washer and dryer you can no longer afford.

You dabble in tanking a little bit, right? You start reading about data and numbers and start talking down to your elders because they think there’s still a place for traditional centers in today’s game. You suggest that Team X should really trade their best players to get a chance at this year’s best prospects, which, of course, are the best ever! because it was the first year you did some YouTube digging on the EuroLeague.

The idea of having a really good player on your team is no longer palatable. No, the wine on Wednesday’s doesn’t do it anymore. You need a martini “treat” to wash down the Monday blues to start the week off. Now, just one person suggesting that making the playoffs as a six seed is a good thing makes you call them things like the “r word,” a term no longer accepted in the American vernacular.

The sweat pours down your forehead when you see a team in the hunt for the playoffs almost win, as they are decreasing their draft lottery odds by 0.3% if they do!

It’s arguable whether being addicted to winning is a good thing — it can cause you to be a dick and have a miserable life once you stop having the ability to win at whatever you do, whether that’s in business or sports. But you’re not even that — you’re a fucking loser, man. You’re addicted to losing under the guise of being a winner.

Now, look, I’m not against tanking. It certainly makes sense at points. It also made a lot more sense when the lottery odds were much more favorable to the worst of the worst teams.

When Zach LaVine is dribbling around like I do on a northside recreational center court with dead spots, and an under-inflated ball, I’ve certainly had those inappropriate thoughts run through my head. Thoughts about getting rid of him, and others, “saving some money,” and hitting rock bottom, hoping for a top-4 pick that would keep this year’s draft pick in the Bulls’, and not the Magic’s, hands.

I’m in the struggle. Trust me, I am as aware of the Bulls warts as I am of the ever-growing bald spot on the back of my head. This shit greets me every morning and tells me to fuck off right before bed.

But these losing addicts are not to be taken seriously. If someone is suggesting this or that team should tank once in a decade or less, hey, no problem with that. If they’re instead suggesting that every other year after a team struggles over the course of the week, tweeting things like “this team ain’t it,” then they’re not to be taken seriously.

They’re outsiders. They’re not in the trenches. If they were, they wouldn’t be so willing to put the team in the shitter every year.

Because I am (unfortunately) a die-hard Bulls fan, I can’t stand the thought of them completely dressing down the roster. Why? Well, they just started rebuilding it last year.

The Bulls have made the playoffs two times in seven years. Seven years is a long time, and making the playoffs just twice in that period is absolutely ridiculous, given that half the league makes the postseason. That’s not even considering that Chicago is supposed to be considered one of the basketball capitals of the world.

So, forgive me if, after trading Jimmy Butler (bad idea), I don’t want to turn around and press Quit on the PlayStation again and run upstairs. I went through four painful years before these last two.

But the outsiders yell “Rebuild!” because they weren’t watching then, and they aren’t watching now. Don’t listen to them. Or, rather, I’m not going to listen to you.

Just as I said last week, there’s a time and place for everything. If a guy on the L is wearing a jiu jitsu shirt and taking up two seats on a Tuesday, let him be. It’s not the time or place to be a brave bystander. The woman standing up with a walker could use the exercise anyhow.

There’s a time and place for total rebuilds, but they are few and far between. There is more than one way to build a championship-level team.

Put the wine down and shut the fuck up. You’re talking too loud.

You’ll be 30 and an alcoholic soon. And if we had it your way, I’ll be 40 soon, having not seen the Bulls win a playoff series past my legal-drinking age. But hey, at least we got a chance at the 15-year-old kid who you saw on YouTube.

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Seriously, all of these people are acting like they didn’t just watch the Bulls avenge last week’s loss and dominate the Charlotte Hornets tonight. Just give this team a chance.

Here are the actual realities:

— The Bulls are 24-27

— They are four games out of the 6 seed, which is the most righteous goal. That is what gets you an automatic bid (non-play-in) to the playoffs and keeps you from playing a top-2 team in the first round. In other words, a worthwhile playoff berth. Four games is not a lot, but there are also currently four teams ahead of the Bulls racing for that 6 seed.

— The Bulls have very valuable players on their roster, believe it or not. They could yield a whole lot in trades, but that all depends on other teams. The Bulls are in a better position than some would lead you to believe. They have bargaining power if they were to trade. They also have decent young talent. The last two first rounders before Dalen Terry are playing much better this year — Coby White and Pat Williams.

— I’m actually more concerned for Lonzo Ball The Person right now than I am for Lonzo Ball The Basketball Player. Having knee pain that cannot be accurately diagnosed by seven doctors, that persists after surgery, sounds like a miserable experience. If an injury has been affecting day-to-day life for a year, and doesn’t have a blatant diagnosis, that just has to be an awful problem. It also means that the door is slammed shut on Ball playing this season. And, if we’re in the trust tree, it may be over for Lonzo as a Bull. Hell, it could be over for him in the league. I don’t know. But I know we can, unfortunately, count him out. He ain’t walking through that door.

The Bulls are not a very good team right now. Are they capable of winning eight in a row? I really think they are. But the problem is that they are also capable of losing five out of eight winnable games.

The Bulls have blown four games this season when leading by 15 or more points. That is the second-most in the league, only behind the Rockets, who are tanking. No, your eyes aren’t lying to you.

Just a year ago, the Bulls were the no.1 seed in the Eastern Conference. That happens to coincide, by the way, with Lonzo’s injury. As his knee has deteriorated, so have the Bulls.

Get this: the Bulls even have a top performing 5-man lineup in the league. The DeRozan-LaVine-Vucevic-Caruso-Dosunmu lineup is good for a +13.6 net rating, the 5th best lineup in the NBA.

If you take out Caruso and Dosunmu, the DeRozan-Vucevic-LaVine trio also has a plus-net rating, which they did not have last year. That was a part of the problem.

The Bulls have had their injuries, sure. They’ve missed Javonte Green, they’ve missed Caruso for stretches. LaVine has missed some games. But that has not been the problem.

What the Bulls face is variance combined with narratives. For instance, they now have been victim to four — four! — game-changing, missed calls that the NBA admitted to after the fact. Even if those were flipped, the Bulls are 28-23. They would likely be in the 6th seed, then, and the talk would be about whether they could become a contender with a big deadline deal.

The Bulls net rating suggests that they are a bit better than their record shows. But now, because it’s not, the deadline is approaching and the seller signs are mounting up.

The problem has been losing winnable games. All year, that has been the problem. There are a ton of factors that play into that, but that’s the simplest way to put it.

The Bulls even have the 11th best defense in the league. But they have the 22nd best offense in the league. We take one step forward and two back. Comparatively, the Bulls were 13th in offensive rating last year and 23rd in defensive rating.

In some ways, this front office was handicapped during the offseason. They did fine with the money they did have. They got Dragic and Drummond to fill holes. But because they did not go into the tax, like most of the best teams do, they didn’t get what they most desperately needed, and that’s three-point shooting.

I wrote about it all offseason. It was so stunning that they didn’t address it that I even held out until, like, October, saying that I thought there was another move coming. It never came. This team with two more knockdown three-point shooters is likely already in the 6th seed, or slightly above it.

Instead, we’ve relied on ostensibly our best player in Zach LaVine, and our young gun Patrick Williams, to make the majority of our threes. It’s not sustainable.

Quick digression: Patrick Williams is developing into a good two-way player. He’s oftentimes been compared to the 4th round pick in the year after he was drafted, Scottie Barnes, as a way to discredit him, despite the fact they’ve played a similar amount of games. Now, that comparison is evening out.

So, are the Bulls buyers or sellers?

Most Bulls fans have polarizing opinions on the deadline. Some want to sell big, some want to sell very big. Some even want to buy big.

The reality is that likely none of these fans are going to get their wish. It’s just not the Bulls’ modus operandi. This organization doesn’t deal in absolutes. From my preamble, you think I’d agree with that approach, but I generally don’t.

It’s also unlikely that this new front office — who I still believe in, by the way — wants to do away with their entire plan just a year and a half into it. They tried to get good — forgive them! — and it has bitten them.

Lonzo Ball’s situation was out of their control. Before he got hurt last year, you could have argued that the Bulls had three top-40 contracts in the league between Ball, Caruso, and DeRozan. The new regime has not been a complete failure. Their process (mostly) has been sound.

I don’t think they’ll have permission to do away with the meager little house they just built. I don’t think they necessarily want to, either.

Be prepared for a relatively quiet deadline. I would be shocked if any of these players are dealt: DeRozan, LaVine or Caruso.

What should the Bulls do?

I have thought long and hard about what direction the Bulls should go. I would love them to add an awesome piece at the deadline and try to make a run at the playoffs, but that is probably short-sighted.

What I think they could do is a re-tooling, one that wouldn’t hurt their play-in chances much this year and would still allow them to make just one or two moves in the offseason that could get them to the next level.

Are you ready for my proposal? Everyone, huddle in. Don’t tell anyone I told you.

The Bulls should trade Zach LaVine, if — and only if — the price is right. I’m not talking about any of these BS Laker trades you see circulating the web. I’m talking about trading to a team that can immediately give you a good player — probably a bad contract, too, to match salaries — and picks that materialize with minimal protections in the lottery in both 2023 and 2024. The Bulls, then, could be in play for a big-time prospect, or could use that capital to get a better piece — or two or three pieces — this offseason.

The Bulls aren’t going to trade DeRozan. He’s a star on a good deal. They won that deal when everyone called them morons. They’ll likely want to keep him. Plus, he wants to stay. He has another year and a half on that deal.

Caruso is in the exact same situation. And though he’s not an All-Star, he is arguably one of the most impactful role players in the entire league. It’s why contenders want him so badly.

Vucevic is unique because his deal is expiring. The Bulls could certainly see that as a reason to trade him, but despite his play — which has been good — I can’t think of a team that would be ready to sell out for his services. He’s actually probably more valuable on a reasonable extension than he is as a trade piece.

LaVine, on the other hand, is on a bad deal. That’s actually not a knock on the front office. Though he’s due $215 million over five years, keeping him was the right move. LaVine was one of the best offensive players in all of basketball from 2019-2021. His injuries have taken that away from him. It’s a shame.

But the thought process at the time of the signing still holds: the Bulls have him, which means they have the asset. Had they let him go, we wouldn’t have the opportunity to trade him for capital that could upgrade the roster. And there’s at least a few teams out there that still view him as a top-tier player.

Unfortunately, I do not. LaVine had a really fabulous month-stretch recently, and then reverted back to some bad decision-making and poor end-game performance. He suddenly can’t dribble.

His numbers aren’t bad, but that’s why you need to watch the games. We’re past the halfway mark in the season, and he’s still incapable of reaching the rhythmic style he used to have. It just doesn’t look good. Even when it is good. I have no faith he’ll be worth his contract in four years, or even two years, for that matter.

If you are able to recoup some of that value for him now — do it. Don’t sit on the opportunity.

There’s a scenario where the Bulls trade LaVine, re-up on assets, and are right back where they were at the beginning of last year, next year. It’s an opportunity to get out of this trap, which is not really a trap at all.

Two firsts with minimal to no protections — that are lottery-projected — plus a bad contract (with less years) and a good player is fine by me. I would love that.

It hurts to say. LaVine has grown up in Chicago and turned into a really good player that looked like he could be part of the centerpiece. He no longer looks like that. If he returns to it, so be it. But the risk calculation isn’t worth it.

Even without LaVine, I don’t think the Bulls would fall off that much this season — especially considering that they’d be getting players back. Taking a small step back could help the Bulls spring forward, and quickly.

What should the Bulls do over the next week?

Thanks all for reading, again. I always appreciate it. We’ll be back next week.

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