Still Gotta Come Through Chicago

The Final Two Minutes

Happy Friday Chicago!

My older brother told me a long time ago that the only minutes worth watching in an NBA game were the last two. One team goes up, the other team comes back, and then they duke it out in the final 120 seconds to see who wins. That’s when you need to tune in. The rest is noise.

To say that triggered me would be an understatement. He didn’t care enough to listen to my rebuttal. I evoked mathematics, analogies, and resorted to a lot of name calling. I kept picking away at him, but I was picking with my fingernail, and he was a boulder.

Years later, I find myself ignoring the stock market — yet again. I wrote last August: the stock market goes down, the stock market goes up, and yada, yada.

It’s untrue that an NBA game only matters in the last two minutes, and probably untrue that it doesn’t matter when the stock market drops precipitously in a week’s time. But if I sat in front of you and made you explain to me why I was wrong, you’d be picking with your finger nail.

Down goes the market, up goes the market, lots of yelling, everyone takes their places, and it’s back up, lots of yelling… yada, yada. If you need me, I’ll be sitting here twiddling my bare toes, one hand in a bowl of chocolate-covered açaí berries and the other rubbing the Pilar cysts on top of my bald head.

In this scenario, the equivalent of the last two minutes of an NBA game is when I specifically need stocks to be up so I can make a big life move. When that time comes, I’ll be in the sitting president’s ass. Until then, another bowl of berries, sir? Yes, please.

That ignorance brings a much needed, blissful sense of calm. It’s the same kind of calm I’ve brought into my newsletter life through avoiding social media in the months leading up to the NFL Draft.

If you’re off social media for a little while, you’ll find yourself in strange conversations. Someone will look you in the eye, dead serious, and say something like this: “You didn’t see that? There’s these fat little boys who have a podcast and they have a dance called the Truffle Waggle. But some people think they’re plants and that they used to live on Epstein Island. Anyway, they interviewed the President of the United States yesterday.”

There will be a moment of pause, and then they’ll say: “You have to see this shit.”

I don’t know man, I actually think I’m good.

In a very similar vein, you’ll have someone swear to you that it looks like the Bears are going to draft Ashton Jeanty. I must have missed something, I think for a second. Why do you say that?

Just something they saw. And not Ashton Jeanty hanging out at Halas Hall, where they were staked out. But an article that leads you to a broken link that claims the Bears are all in on the former Boise State running back.

All of this is to say, I’ve been left to my own devices to decide how I feel about the draft. I know who my kitchen cabinet — brothers, dad, a few trusted friends — is voting for (who they want the Bears to take), and not much else.

So when I dive into the draft below, you can trust that this is coming from months of mulling the future, waxing and waning on prospects, and taking into consideration the reporting and opinions of very few people.

That’s for better or worse, of course. This could be useless fodder for all of us to chew on, it could get our heads on straight for the ostensible glory that the NFL Draft brings in late April. Who knows.

We’re in the final two minutes of pre-draft coverage, so it’s time to strike.

We all know the entire basketball game matters. For all intents and purposes, the first basket matters as much as the last. Does a sell off in the stock market matter? I guess I’ll have to concede that maybe it does (I bet ya it’ll go back up). (More berries, please.)

But one is not like the other here.

No one knows what these teams are going to do before the draft except for them (unless they have the no. 1 overall pick). Is it worth it to talk about it, then, in January? If it makes you happy — absolutely.

The NFL Draft makes me happy, but the February 13th argument over the 10th overall pick on April 24 is, to me, like getting blacked out and pissing yourself on the Thursday before your best friend’s Saturday wedding.

It’s just not the best bang for my buck. Go ahead and black out. Wake up with piss-soaked tuxedo pants. Make it count, though, my friends. Make it count.

I’m ready now to dive into the boiling water. My mom rubbed sunscreen on my back, I got the rest, and I’ve sat on the lawn chair by the pool like a good boy for 20 minutes to let it soak in. I may get burnt on these takes below, but it won’t be because I was overeager.

The Cubs offense is awesome, the Bulls are going to play a postseason game next week (sort of), the NFL Draft is near, and the Masters is on to take your imagination somewhere else — anywhere else — besides dreary Chicago.

But first, spend some time with me here.

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We’ll have to start with the good before we get into any of the bad, as I’ve told myself this newsletter will not bow to the whims of recency over this 162-game season.

The Cubs appear to have an offense, folks.

Currently the second-best run-producing team in the league, they only sit behind the Yankees and their torpedo bats. And that’s not just against the Athletics in a minor league stadium, either.

Of course they lost the day game to the Rangers on Wednesday. And of course they blew their lead in the Sunday finale against the Padres. It helps to be analytical when evaluating a very analytical game, but not in these instances. No, if you thought the Cubs were going to win that game on Sunday, you haven’t watched this team play enough over the last five years. And no, I don’t care that the roster and the manager have turned hands in that time.

And no, I don’t care to look up the Cubs record in the last games of series in which they’ve won the first two games over the past five years. Just know that I know it’s bad.

They are now 0-2 on Sundays in this young season. In each of those games, they had late leads.

But I said I was going to start with the good, so let’s get back to it.

The Cubs are not just the second-best offense in baseball, they also have the best run differential in the league. They’ve outscored their opponents by 28 on their way to a 9-6 record (which should be better).

Carson Kelly and Kyle Tucker both own OPS marks over 1. Kelly has a better OPS than Aaron Judge, who is leading the league in OPS for qualified batters.

Seiya Suzuki is right near that 1 OPS mark, too.

The Cubs have already hit 18 home runs this year, they’re third in doubles, and they’re tied for first in triples.

It’s hasn’t come against stiffs, either. The Cubs have produced massive run totals over and over, against some of the best teams in baseball. That at least gives you some confidence that they’ll be able to hold their own this weekend when they get another shot at the Dodgers, who will showcase their embarrassment of riches with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow on the bump.

The fielding and base running, as mentioned last week, continues to amaze. The Cubs are just a really well rounded ball club (in the lineup, at least).

An offensive explosion and a bonafide superstar like Kyle Tucker has meant that the young guys can ease their way into the season, too. Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong (the latter especially) have contributed in other ways, but haven’t really hit yet.

That would not have been fine last year — for two near-everyday players to be hitting at or below .200 over 15 games. This year, it has been fine.

Rookies and sophomores have been able to be rookies and sophomores thus far. Shaw and Crow-Armstrong will come around, no doubt, but there’s been no need for a panic button with Suzuki and Tucker hitting the way they have been. We haven’t even mentioned the starts that Matt Busch, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner have gotten off to.

Swanson is hitting the ball well, and hitting it far. I still like to think that it is because he has rebounded his strength after offseason surgery, but it appears that he too could be benefitting from a “torpedo bat.” The same goes for Hoerner, apparently.

All of a sudden, the thought of torpedo bats doesn’t sound all that bad.

Now, for the bad.

The Cubs bullpen is just not very good. And when you’re not that good, you cannot afford to walk people. And that’s all they do. Seemingly no matter who is chosen to enter into the game with a lead, they like to immediately get a baserunner out there to spice things up.

That’s backed up by the WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning) of the bullpen, which is among the worst in baseball at 1.74. The bullpen ERA overall hovers near 5.0. Ryan Pressly can notch saves all he wants, but he has inspired no confidence. There hasn’t really been a standout arm thus far.

The offense has been good enough to put that to the side for now.

It’s hard to remember, but Jed Hoyer did ultimately fix the bullpen on the fly last year. I still think a lot of these guys will progress to the mean, but that doesn’t help right now when the Cubs are losing winnable games.

Sunday’s loss to the Padres probably falls on Justin Turner for inexplicably missing a ball at first, but it was the bullpen that made seven runs feel inadequate in the first place.

What does concern me is Justin Steele’s health.

After turning in his first good start of the year this week, he was placed on the IL with an elbow issue. He says it’s fine, and as of this writing, there’s still been no result of his MRI. But this is now a forearm issue and two elbow issues in a relatively short period of time for Steele. It’s precautionary, they tell us, but I’m having a tough time being optimistic about the long term here.

Kyle Tucker is also a better player than Vlad Guerrero Jr., and the latter just got $500 million (albeit over 14 years). At this point, it may be best to view Tucker’s play on the field in a vacuum for the rest of the year.

The gauntlet continues this weekend. The Cubs head west to take on the Dodgers, then the Padres, then the Diamondbacks. After that? The Philadelphia Phillies.

Dansby, stick with the torpedo bats. It’s no time to cool off.

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As a newsletter commenter wrote earlier this month, the Bears are the back-to-back-to-back offseason champs. The parade will take place in early May this year, right after the draft finally arrives.

Let’s first tackle the elephant in the room: Ashton Jeanty.

Jeanty, the Heisman runner-up and one of the best running backs in college football over the last ten years, may not even be on the board by the time the Bears pick at 10.

If he’s not, I’d consider us lucky. But I shouldn’t say that, as I don’t think that the Bears’ brain trust wants a running back at no. 10.

Jeanty is alluring. He’s a running back, and it’s been hardwired into all of our brains to love good running backs since we started following football at an early age.

He’s even more alluring now that the Bears plugged some holes and filled their more dire needs in free agency. I don’t even disagree with this thought process. Of course the Bears have more flexibility now that they have proven veterans slotted on their offensive and defensive lines.

Even then, taking Jeanty would still be a nearsighted choice.

There’s three main reasons why I don’t want Jeanty. I’ve had to develop these, as “stop it” and “are you kidding me?” have not been convincing enough answers to my fellow Bears fan friends and family.

The first reason is a simple one. This is one of the deepest running back classes in recent memory, and the Bears have plenty of good draft capital in this year’s draft: no. 10, no. 39, no. 41, no. 72, no. 148, and nos. 233 and 240 in the seventh round.

TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Cam Skattebo, Kaleb Johnson, Omarion Hampton, and others can all fill the not-so-pressing need the Bears have at running back (more on this later).

Make no mistake, the running back position is still a low-value one. Running backs mean virtually nothing if the rest of the house is not in order. And we cannot say with certainty that the rest of the house is in order — now, or in the future.

The only exceptions are running backs that transcend the position. That is to say, players who turn a low-value position into a high-value one. For my money, the two most talented running backs in the NFL are Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. Robinson has been squandered in Atlanta, and Barkley was squandered in New York before he got to Philadelphia. Derrick Henry is a body-type outlier.

But what if the Bears become Philadelphia?

Good question. I now arrive at point no. 2. Jeanty was incredible in college, and I don’t want to diminish him by pointing out many of his best games came against inferior competition. But he’s not Saquon Barkley.

He already has a lot of mileage on him, he’s not as athletic as Barkley, he’s not a proven pass catcher, and, well, he didn’t play in a power conference.

He’s probably a sure thing as a productive running back for four years or so, but there’s plenty of places to get a productive running back outside of the 10th overall pick in the draft.

Jeanty is unlikely to become Trent Richardson. But he’s far more likely to become Richardson than he is Saquon Barkley. He’s much more likely to become Najee Harris.

The Bears can’t afford that risk.

Our goal is to be good next year. Of course! But what’s the real goal? To be a perennial contender over the next five years.

And if we achieve that goal, we won’t be drafting in the top 10 again — God willing — for a long time.

Do we want to look back on this draft years from now, in need of an influx of young talent, and see Jeanty next to our name at no. 10? No, we don’t.

Because Jeanty is considered a top-5 prospect in this year’s draft by experts does not make him more valuable to the Bears at 10. That is a short-term view of a team that may be able to set itself up for long-term success for the first time in a long time.

The Bears still need young, certified talent in the trenches. I’ll do you one better. Every team needs young, certified talent in the trenches. If they go that route, I’d tip my cap.

The Bears also may need a new safety, as Jaquan Brisker has had three awful head injuries in the same amount of years. That may be besides the point.

But, all in all, it depends on who falls to them. It just can’t be Jeanty.

I also think Tyler Warren, the tight end from Penn State, has a far better chance of being a game changer at that position than Jeanty does at running back.

Also, come close. Let me whisper… I think D'Andre Swift will look more than fine next year under Ben Johnson. He’s succeeded underneath him before. And, to tie a bow, they can get a running back later on!

I’ll be more declarative in who I want the Bears to draft next week. For now, it’s who I don’t want. Clear your head of Jeanty, and we can talk more then.

#BEARDOWN

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The Bulls got shellacked by another top team in the NBA this week, losing to the Cavaliers by 22 on Tuesday.

But that’s of minor importance, and what’s of major importance is that Josh Giddey turned in 28-16-11 a night later in a huge showdown against the Heat at the United Center.

With two games left against the tanking Wizards and 76ers, that puts the Bulls in position to host a play-in game against the Heat next week. It’s unlikely they’ll leapfrog the Hawks, who currently own the 8 seed (they play tanking teams from here on out, too).

You should be used to this deal by now, but in case you’ve just recently caught Bulls fever, here’s the deal: if the Bulls win their 9-10 matchup against the Heat, they will then play the loser of the 7-8 game between the Hawks and Magic. If they win that, too, they’ll make the playoffs.

Then the Cavs will get our best effort, and we’ll win that series in 6.

Obviously, it’s an uphill climb, but I actually think the Bulls are currently the best of the four play-in teams. I would put it at a 50-50 chance that they make the playoffs. If they do, Billy Donovan should be awarded Coach of the Year.

As is tradition, the Bulls play-in game will become must-watch TV when it arrives. Like I said last week, load the uzis, grab the grenades, get the rocket launchers. It’s war from here on out, ladies and gentlemen.

It’s time to see red, and only red, for at least the next week.

LETS GO BULLS!

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Thanks for reading another edition of Still Gotta Come Through Chicago. I appreciate it. Send it to someone today!, comment below, or do both.