Still Gotta Come Through Chicago

If you don't read this, you won't know how to properly place a bet in Illinois.

Last week, I promised a second newsletter. I didn’t deliver. I was too busy arguing with my friends about coronavirus. It was tough too, because one of them had actually read the first four sentences of a Wall Street Journal article before the paywall blocked him. He’s a tough opponent. Anyways, my apologies. Let’s get back to it.

I’m trying to get 20 new subscribers by week’s end. Can you help me? The weather is getting warmer and Still Gotta Come Through Chicago is heating up. Tell someone to subscribe today:

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Trivia:

I hit .307/.387/.359 for either the Cubs or the White Sox in 2008. I hit just one home run. I won two World Series after I left Chicago. Who am I?

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Introduction

When Illinois originally legalized sports betting and said its target launch date was the NFL season, I laughed. Turns out laughing at the state of Illinois is never a bad bet. They didn’t just miss Week 1, they missed the entire goddamn season, which is by far the most profitable time of year for states with legalizing gambling.

They’re also not doing it right. In New Jersey, for instance, you can place bets from wherever — there’s mobile and online betting there. In Illinois, you’ll actually have to go to a casino to place a bet. It’s also worth mentioning that the taxes and entry fees placed on the licenses were so outrageous that Mayor Lori Lightfoot said that a Chicago casino was not even financially feasible.

If you’re looking to sports bet in Chicago, ironically, your best bet is probably still Horseshoe Hammond, which is in Indiana. Your next best bet is Rivers Casino in Des Plaines.

Now, if you’re like me, your betting habits probably won’t be affected one bit. This is similar to my marijuana-inclined friends acting like the legalization of weed was the best thing that had ever happened to them. Bro, you’ve had the same weed dealer for years and you smoke on your couch every night. You’re not waiting in an outrageous line for weed that J.B. Pritzkers slimy hands have been all over.

That’s the same thing with me. Will I go to a casino and bet once or twice a year? Maybe. But just like the legalization of weed has only made the streets smell a bit more like it, all legalized gambling will probably do is increase the amount of idiots telling you why the over in tomorrow’s NBA game is a LOCK.

So, with that, let’s get into some gambling etiquette for our newcomers:

1. Please don’t tell me that it’s raining in Cleveland and that’s why you’ve got the under on the Browns-Ravens game. You think the billion-dollar sports books in Las Vegas don’t have access to the weather app, man? Is that your inside information?

2. Do not tell people you have a system. I promise you if you had a system that actually worked you wouldn’t be telling every person you saw at the bar about it and you wouldn’t be with me drinking on a Saturday. They’d be flying you out to Vegas and offering you a job, you wouldn’t be spitting in my face talking about betting against the public and having me say “damn, that’s crazy” and “I gotta run to the bathroom” in response.

3. It’s okay to win or lose a bet and not tell a single soul about it. And if you had the Bulls +5 and they lost by 8 that does not warrant a story. “They missed two threes at the end! I could’ve won!” Conservatively, thousands of people have had far worse gambling losses than you in that day alone. You also shouldn’t have won the bet. There’s a line for a reason. You being close to the line but ultimately losing it is not in the slightest bit interesting.

4. If you are a good gambler or on a good run, don’t start telling your friends about it (Yes, I know that I give a pick out at the bottom of this newsletter every week. Whatever). I have made this mistake myself. I started giving out NBA picks in my group chat last year and won the first four or five. I probably lost two or three in the next week and all of a sudden I was a dumbass and a moron. “Nice pick idiot.” It’s just a lose-lose. The best bettors in the world are happy to win 57% of their bets. In other words, you’re likely to lose more than you win.

5. On that note, NEVER, and I mean NEVER, pay someone for their picks. That person already has — at best — just barely over a 50% chance of winning their pick. If you’re betting $20 per game, paying someone else $20 for their picks is just flushing money down the toilet.

6. Betting will absolutely never be a supplemental income for you. I remember when I won like 60 bucks in college in one of my first weeks gambling (I was so rich, dude) I thought that I’d have some extra cash in my wallet every week until I died. That is definitively not the case.

7. If you’re going through a bookie, establish a good relationship with them. Don’t bother them about not getting paid immediately, because when times get tough — and let me tell ya, they will — you don’t want them down your throat about the money. When you’re down a manageable amount, send it immediately. Establish a good rapport. Also, as my bookie once said, you could be in a literal war and still be able to send a Venmo. Don’t tell them that you have to send it later. The time it took you to send that text saying you were busy is double the time it would’ve taken to transfer them money.

8. I know most of you won’t heed this advice, but don’t bet that much money. From my experience, the betting is at least still 80% as thrilling when you have 10 bucks on something as it is when you have 100.

9. Do not social media and gamble. Just because you bet half of your paycheck on a college basketball game on a Wednesday does not warrant you lashing out at a 18-year-old who just got in his first game of the season and turned the ball over. If someone was betting on what you did at your job everyday, that would suck real bad. So just consider that.

10. Finally, gambling is about the journey, not the destination. It’s the nights you and your friends bet on the Sacramento Kings for absolutely no reason and get an entire portion of the bar to chant “Let’s Go Kings” (true story), not the 15 dollars you won because of it.

Any other tips? Leave a comment.

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Bulls

The biggest Bulls news of the week has absolutely nothing to do with the current team. Joakim Noah has been signed. He agreed to a deal with the Clippers this week, which has effectively made me Clipper Darrell.

I might start wearing this suit around. Joakim Noah, the man who came in fourth in MVP without having a lick of offensive talent. Joakim Noah, the man who said he plays for the fans in the upper deck. Joakim Noah, the man who swears the Bulls would’ve won a championship had Derrick Rose not gone down — to this day. Joakim Noah, the guy who called LeBron James a little bitch (to which LeBron responded, ‘I have kids, man.’ Wtf does that have to do with anything?). Joakim Noah, the man who has committed 14% of his career technicals against LeBron James teams. Joakim Noah, the man who has struggled with injuries since his Bulls days and not once blamed Tom Thibodeau.

Everyone loved the Derrick Rose era, as they should. But for die-hard fans like myself, there was something even more special about those teams that battled when he was off the court. They beat the Nets in seven games and beat the Heat in Game 1 of the second round with basically seven healthy players. That was in large part thanks to a mentality that Jo set for the entire team.

I’m glad he was able to sign with a contender, and I have no doubt that he’ll make an impact. It was really a no-brainer for the Bulls to sign him — he would’ve been cheap and immediately made an impact on the energy surrounding the team. But the Bulls, as you know, are not into no-brainers. Or maybe they did reach out to him and he felt above that. I hope that was the case.

(Hiring Kenny Atkinson as coach — who the Nets just fired — would be a no-brainer. But that would require firing Jimmy B.)

Noah is one of those players that should actually have his jersey number retired in the UC. I’m dead serious. The Bulls always blather on about what it means to be on the team and being tough and the culture and blah blah blah. Noah actually embodied that. He’s a rare breed, and I’ll miss him when he’s out of the NBA forever.

Consider this, the year he was fourth in MVP voting, he averaged 12 and 11. That is unprecedented. Years later, people will look back at that and be confused. But for anyone that was there in the moment, the impact he made was crystal clear. He had over 11 win shares in that season (generally, win shares is a stat that tries to calculate how many wins a player was worth to his team). For reference, he had about the same amount that year as Kevin Durant did last year.

That’s the sort of player Noah was, though. The only thing you can ever root for as a fan is for the players to care as much about the team as you do. Noah did that, and a lot more. That’s even without mentioning what he did in the community, where he worked hard to put the city’s youth on the right path throughout his time here.

I love that man. If you’re a Bulls fan, we’ve got a team to root for in the playoffs this year after all.

As for the actual Bulls, they are now 0-21 against the Eastern Conference’s top eight teams. They have not beaten a single playoff team in their own conference, which is the worse one. The players can’t even hide their disdain for Jim Boylen, yet the front office continues to commend him for the job he’s done. In others words, business as usual!

Coby White has continued to be one of the only bright spots on the team, so let me clear up some confusion. I like Coby White — a lot. I don’t like people who don’t ever watch the Bulls but still scream START COBY WHITE for absolutely no reason. Jim Boylen does a million things wrong, so focus on some of those before you start deliberating over starting lineups.

White has scored over 20 points in seven of his last eight games, and scored over 30 in just about half of those. He almost completed a comeback in Sunday’s Nets game when his three rimmed in and out. He’s not afraid to go to the basket and he’s not afraid to take a big shot. Those are two very positive developments from the 7th overall pick. He’s still only averaging a little over 13 points per game, which shows you how far he has come. His defense could use some work, but he plays hard enough that I am bullish on his chances to become at least a service-level defender.

If you want to get mad at Boylen for his handling of a Bulls rookie, turn that outrage to Daniel Gafford instead. The dude is only playing 14 minutes per game, but has far exceeded expectations when he’s been in there. His player efficiency rating is 16.3, which is above league average. He leads all rookies in blocks (1.3 per game) by a significant margin, and remember that’s in a little over a quarter of game time per contest.

He’s limited offensively, but he’s a great defender and an athletic big. There’s absolutely no reason, despite him making literally 16 times more money than him, for Cristiano Felicio to be playing over Gafford.

*take a deep sigh at your desk

“Hey, what’s wrong with you today? Tough weekend?”

“Just can’t believe that Daniel Gafford isn’t getting more playing time.”

Bulls record: 21-43, 11th in the Eastern Conference

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Blackhawks

This year’s Blackhawks have an uncanny ability to get their fans excited over nothing. They’re like a distant father who tells their kid that they’re going to go to the amusement park this weekend and then flakes. Every time this team looks to be showing life, they immediately blow up in our faces.

I wrote an obituary of sorts for the Hawks a week or two ago. I said the playoff race was over. They lost a few key games and then traded a few players for a bag of hockey pucks. But then they go on these mini-runs that make you think … wait a minute, could it be? Will I be singing DA DA DA, DA DA DA 10 beers deep in a bar come springtime after a goal I didn’t even see?

Well, the answer is probably no. They’re 6 points out of the wild card spot with 13 games to go. They stomped on their own chances again this weekend after getting hopes up in the few games before. They beat Anaheim and Winnipeg, and then promptly laid an egg in Detroit to the worst team in the league. Then they got shut out in the UC against the Blues on Sunday.

The lesson is to stop believing in this team. They’re no good for us this year. They rope you in and then drop you — I would say without warning, but we should know better. They’re a slightly below average team. Average at best. They will continue to be that the rest of the season.

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Bears

Thank you to those of you who read close enough last week to notice my error. Yes, I know that Andy Dalton was actually without A.J. Green for all of last season. It was the year before that where he missed half of the team’s games. Sleep deprivation and facts are not friends.

There were reports this week that Eli Manning was eating dinner in Chicago with Bears reps, but those were quickly refuted. Thank god. Can you imagine suffering as a Bears fan for as long as we have, and then being told the answer to our quarterback troubles is a near-40 year old Eli Manning? That really may have been it for me.

Also, can we please stop saying “We need to get Trubisky some competition.” Guys, what are we waiting for here? Is he the guy or not? I don’t think he is. So no, we don’t need competition. We need another quarterback. If you’re looking for another option at all while you have a guy you drafted 2nd overall on the roster, you know you need more than competition. Also, what is competition going to do for Trubisky? Is Andy Dalton somehow going to make Mitch an accurate passer? Will he be less dumb on the football field if A. J. McCarron is in the QB room with him?

If you’re a struggling Trubisky supporter, I get it. You’ve been hurt for so long, and he was dubbed as the savior. You’ve invested your own time and money in him. He’s a nice guy. He is athletic. But please do not piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining by suggesting that what the Bears need is a QB competition.

As for Dalton, things appear to be heating up a bit.

Malik Wright @Wrightreportt

Apparently the Bengals have granted the Chicago Bears permission to speak with Andy Dalton and his reps regarding a potential trade and possibility of restructuring his contract.

I think this is good news. There are a lot of QB options out there, but few are feasible with the Bears cap situation. For Dalton, I see this as a great opportunity. He has a chance to show that he is still a decent quarterback with the right team. For a lot of guys who have been in the league and been paid, that’s worth more to them than a pay check.

Dalton has proved his worth over the years. As I said last week, he’s one of those guys who has been unfairly maligned because he’s not one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He’s had good years, he’s had bad years. But he’d be, like, one of the best quarterbacks to ever put on a Bears uniform. That says a lot more about the Bears than it does about him. Still, I’d be okay with him as the starter.

He’s smart. He’s still physically capable. He’s been in the playoffs. He’s a prime candidate for the change-of-scenery theory — that him getting out of one of the worst organizations in football alone could be a catalyst for improvement.

In terms of analyzing his prior production, I’m throwing last year completely out the window. He played for a team that was actively tanking and missing their best player. This guy is just two years removed from a 25-touchdown, 12-interception season. In 2015, he was damn near an MVP candidate. He’s not as good as he was then, sure, but 85% percent of Dalton sadly sounds pretty damn good to Chicago right now.

If the Bears can figure out a way to stretch his salary, or maybe give him a new deal that pays him a bit more than what he would be making over the next three or four years, this deal makes too much sense. Also, because the Bengals have absolutely no use for him and he’s making a lot of money, he won’t cost much in a trade. Pace loves throwing picks around, but chances are he’ll only have to throw a 4th rounder at most for Dalton.

There’s other quarterbacks I like more, but they — for one reason or another — may not make sense for the Bears right now. Who do you think is the Bears best bet at QB? Leave an answer in the comments and tell me why.

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Chicago Baseball

We’re less than three weeks from opening day, which is sneaky one of the cooler sports days. It’s sort of like March Madness with all the games being played throughout the day, the differentiator being that the March Madness games literally decide the teams’ entire season and the MLB games mean absolutely nothing.

Also, I should have added in the intro: don’t make betting on baseball a habit. You’ll find yourself up at 11:30 at night pissed off that the Sox are only beating the A’s by 1 in the 8th inning because you bet them -1 1/2. It’s like the only sport I’ve never heard someone say they’re really good at betting. I went through a phase last year where I bet the Cubs like eight games in a row, and laid in bed every single night questioning Joe Maddon’s bullpen usage with raised blood pressure.

But I am so excited for baseball season. Obviously, I want the coronavirus to go away as much as the next guy. But if Cubs tickets took a bit of a hit in April, I wouldn’t be mad about it.

As far as spring training goes, I haven’t been able to watch much due to the Sox games hardly ever being on NBC Sports Chicago and the Marquee Network still being unavailable on Comcast’s airwaves. That’s really starting to piss me off.

Still, here are some quick, (probably) irrelevant takeaways. Remember, Spring Training can often have little correlation with the actual MLB regular season.

• Luis Robert, in 27 at bats, has continued where he left off last year in the minors. He’s hitting .370 with an OPS over 1. If he continues to hit like this in Spring Training, it may seem a little less crazy for Ricky Renteria to hit him in the lead off spot on opening day.

• Albert Almora has been playing well thus far, which is I guess a good thing. It also serves as a reminder to not get too excited about anything happening in Arizona or Florida right now. He’s hitting .296 with 2 homers and a double in 27 at bats.

• Ian Happ is also hitting almost .500 in his 23 at bats. Almora and Happ are battling for playing time in center field. Happ’s success is worth rooting for as a Cubs fan, because you don’t want a good spring for Almora to lead to him getting more playing time than he should.

• Craig Kimbrel also picked up where he let off in his debut. A couple of nasty sequences making hitters look foolish and then a prompt home run given up. The Cubs desperately need him to be better this year, and I’m confident he will be. How much better? I don’t know.

The Sox also signed Yoan Moncada to a five year, $70 million deal. That allows the parties to avoid arbitration, something the White Sox have been good about. These deals are also good for trade value, by the way. It was crucial for the Sox that they had Chris Sale and Jose Quintana on good deals when they dealt them. If they had been up for arbitration, or on bigger deals because the Sox waited, they would not have Yoan Moncada or Eloy Jimenez right now.

This isn’t to say that the Sox would ever consider trading Moncada. His deal is now the second-largest in White Sox history. The biggest? Yasmani Grandal’s, this offseason. If Moncada continues on the trajectory he’s been on, this deal will look like a steal in a few years.

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Trivia answer:

Ryan Theriot “The Riot!”

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This week in Chicago:

Bulls: Tuesday at home vs. the Cavs, 7 p.m.; Thursday at the Magic, 6 p.m.; Saturday at the Heat, 7 p.m.; Sunday at home vs. the Celtics, 7 p.m.

Blackhawks: Wednesday at home vs. San Jose, 7 p.m.; Friday at home vs. Ottawa, 7:30 p.m.; Saturday at Washington, 6 p.m.

White Sox: Spring Training

Cubs: Spring Training

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Betting Pick:

Record: 20-14

What can I say, it’s been tough recently down here. When the going gets tough, the tough continue to throw away money, though.

This week’s pick: Denver -2.5 against the Bucks tonight

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Let’s get on a roll here. I want to get 20 more subscribers this week. Can you help make it happen? Tell someone to subscribe today. Leave a comment. Thanks for reading, as always. Next newsletter will be the best one yet.

Everybody with me now: STILL GOTTA COME THROUGH CHICAGO!