Still Gotta Come Through Chicago

When Bearing Down, Exercise Caution

Happy Friday Chicago!

Before we can appreciate where we may be headed in the new year, we have to understand how we got here in the first place.

Every action, inaction, word uttered, word left floating in our heads — it all ultimately impacts the world. On one side of the spectrum are those that find their impact on the world to be nothing, on the other side of the spectrum is a young college lad like me who thought he was on the verge of changing the world on a daily basis.

However nominal the decision, though, it is true that each decision will ultimately have an impact on the world. The same goes for every word ever spoken or written.

Put that way, it’s all a great responsibility that we should take earnestly.

And, in order to get on firm standing for the future, you have to acknowledge the past, even if you can’t change it. If I can’t learn from my past mistakes on a regular basis, I am no better than the Chicago Bears. And that’s a low bar.

In any case, it’s worth taking a look at what I’ve gotten wrong recently. My 2024 was filled with erroneous predictions and flawed logic.

Last year was going to be the year I took full advantage of my company’s benefits. Failure. Last year was going to be the year that I took a solo vacation to get some writing done in the woods. Incomplete.

I made many mistakes in the last year, some tangible and others not.

One of my friends, likely during a college football argument, recently told me that I was a “judge of his sins, and a litigator of mine.” I stopped and thought, “That’s the hardest quote I’ve ever heard,” before thinking of the correct response.

After I gathered myself, though, the rebuttal came to me: I spoke in a mocking voice, and repeated back to him: “JuDgE oF My SiNs, LiTiGatOr Of YouRs. Shut up, bitch.”

I wiped my hands clean and we were off and running to the next topic.

Now, the point remains. It was a great saying. And for this guy, it was one of many. He’s like an encyclopedia for phrases that have exited the American lexicon. “Die in the wool,” for instance, is one I learned from him. The other? A Charlie Brown reference: “Lucy with the football.”

Lucy with the football’s meaning? It talks of the moments when we choose to put our trust in people who have let us down only to be taken by surprise when they let us down, again.

It sounds like an apt saying for this newsletter.

Also, you all — by opening this newsletter every Friday, or once a month, or hardly ever — are making a decision. You’re making a decision that will change the world, in a trivial or not-so-trivial way. And therefore you’re also putting your trust in me, to a certain extent.

So today, I’m becoming a judge of my own sins, a judge of my wrong predictions. I’m offering mea culpas. If I’m going to call out other horrific opinions and takes on here, I may as well offer mine up as well.

Some of these predictions just missed, and I don’t judge myself for them. Others, I should have known better. And I will know better moving forward. They are so hilariously off that they almost read as if they’re intended to be so.

First, we’ll start with what’s fresh on the brain, your Chicago Bears.

When Bearing Down, Exercise Caution

The Vikings finished the regular season with a 14-3 record and the Bears finished with a 5-12 record. Prior to the year, if you would have given me those win-loss counts, and those two teams, I would have bet almost anything on the Bears being the 14-3 team.

The question is: why?

The worst incorrect predictions are the ones where I abandon my own wisdom. I wrote frequently about Matt Eberflus’ incompetence prior the year. I expected a very rookie year for Caleb Williams. I knew the offensive line was still the result of patchwork.

Even then, I predicted an 11-6 season.

I detected the need for an oil change, a tire lacking air, and a faulty steering wheel. Then I sent the car back out on the road with full confidence.

A lot of us did.

September 6th, 2024:

Eberflus is the first concern I have going into the season.

The second concern I have is what I’m also most excited for: Caleb Williams. I’m confident Williams will turn into a star, but I’m not confident he’ll be one from start to finish of this year.

And that’s alright. There will be ups and downs. And I don’t think the national and local expectations are too much for his psyche, which is of major importance. I do think they may be too much for him as a player, at least for this year.

I think he’ll have a good year, and is definitely capable of having a great one. But I’m not banking on it, and I think that anyone that is is getting a little bit over their skis.

Temper expectations, adjust accordingly.

I do believe that the offensive line will be doing more favors for him this year than they did for Justin Fields last year. And, in turn, I think Williams will do more favors for the offensive line this year than Fields did last year.

The offensive and defensive lines are the other areas I’ll be focusing on in Week 1. But, frankly, I like our offensive and defensive lines. Like — not love.

Admittedly, that could be me getting wrapped up in the long offseason, the inherent bias that comes with following each player so closely, and also believing in the general manager.

I think the offensive line will become a strength by next year, but this year, serviceable is what I’m hoping for.

Having said that, the remaining starters from last year’s O-Line were generally good on running downs in 2024. If Williams is in fact that much better than Fields in passing downs when it comes to beating or averting pressure, then that immediately solves a massive year-to-year problem.

Does the above sound like a terrible perspective heading into the year? No. What about matched with an 11-6 prediction? Yes.

With the Bears, McCaskey’s Murphy’s law should always be clearly understood. We should tape it up in all of our homes, and hit it before Sundays (and in the offseason) like the Play Like A Champion Today sign.

What can go wrong, will go wrong.

Despite the clear warts that were shown in the first six games, the 4-2 start fed my misguided thinking. Good teams beat up on bad teams, I said. The Jaguars and Panthers wins were some evidence that the Bears were a good team. Two weeks later, the Bears were definitively a bad team.

It’s worth mentioning that I thought the Commanders loss was the end of the season, for all intents and purposes, in the moment. That’s a smart — and OK — thought for lifelong Bears fans. Unfortunately, the players agreed.

Belief in the Bears, before the season and during the first month and a half, is my first mea culpa.

Then there’s the hiring of Shane Waldron. In retrospect, my breakdown of this hire was not as horrible as I thought it would be. But, yet again, I detected issues and still arrived at the wrong conclusion.

Often, in 2024, I reached conclusions based on fandom, not logic.

This excerpt starts alright, and then turns sour quickly, with the benefit of hindsight.

On Waldron:

February 2nd, 2024

I don’t love that we’re constantly bringing in guys that have run OK offenses and OK defenses, but I’m generally fine with this hire.

Yes, fine is all you’re going to get. I really don’t have a super strong opinion on this one, and sort of felt like this is where the Bears would land all along.

The first positive is, as mentioned above, that he has actual experience calling plays. And his offense has been competent in the meantime, with an above-average quarterback and an average- to below-average one.

Another positive is that he’s not coming from an organization led by an offensive coach. The Rams and 49ers guys are as enticing to me as they are to you, but man, do they worry me at times. Example given, Luke Getsy (underneath Matt LaFleur). You’re just flying much more blind with those hires.

Plus, Waldron actually is from the McVay “coaching tree,” as he was the Rams passing game coordinator from 2018 to 2020. In that sense, you’re getting the best of both worlds.

The Seahawks fans seemed to have hated Waldron. This is not a concern to me. I don’t think there’s more than four fanbases who are satisfied with their offensive play caller. Just like every MLB fan thinks their team’s bullpen sucks, every NFL fan thinks they could do better calling the plays than their team’s offensive coordinator.

I am a bit concerned that Pete Carroll — generally not a very outwardly critical guy — did seem to express displeasure with Waldron at least one time during the season.

“I’m concerned about everything we’re doing right now,” Carroll said in November after a 31-13 loss to the 49ers, reportedly referring to Waldron. “That night last night will make you challenge everything. There are questions to be asked and answers to be found. That’s where we are right now.”

Reportedly, that was due to not getting Jaxon Smith-Njigba involved enough. The good news is that, for now, the Bears do not have anyone that needs to be “more involved” in their offense outside of D.J. Moore.

Those last four paragraphs — oof.

But now we get into the hilarity.

On D.J. Moore, after he signed his extension this past offseason:

August 2nd, 2024

The Bears signed D.J. Moore this week, who I think remains one of the most underrated players in the NFL. I could not have been more impressed with his play last year. He’s been fantastic every season in the league, and never once had a stable situation. That is the sign of a difference maker. He ranked sixth in the NFL in receiving last year, on a team that didn’t pass the ball well.

…

What makes Moore an outlier is not just his production, though, it’s how he carries himself through those unstable situations. The majority of the top receivers are dismayed from one week to the next, their quarterbacks never knowing if they’ve done enough to keep them happy.

Then there’s Moore, who backed Justin Fields tirelessly — leading some fans to incorrectly think that meant he’d be out on Chicago if they moved on from Fields — and now he’s backing Caleb Williams.

“I think Caleb is going to be excellent,” he said. “He’s going to be a superstar. I just wanted to be a part of that.”

That’s not a flip-flopper, in my mind. That’s a good dude who has the emotional maturity to put his teammates first.

*Cue the Curb Your Enthusiasm music* and fast forward to Moore walking off the field, throwing his gloves in a tantrum, and giving half-asleep and pouty interviews for 18 weeks straight.

Impossibly, Moore wasn’t even my worst prediction for a skill player. I may tattoo “Humble Yourself” on my arm, with the below tattooed underneath it.

August 16th, 2024

The last declaration I’ll make, as people boo me and throw food at my face, is that I think we have something in Velus Jones Jr. I know he fumbles, I know he hasn’t been reliable through two years.

But man is he talented. Is five touchdowns a crazy expectation for the kid this year? Not if you believe. I do, and the Bears evidently do too. I think he makes the team, and is used much more frequently than most people think.

My reaction to Hard Knocks was also three-pronged: 1. man, that kind of sucked 2. George McCaskey turns great things to bad, quickly 3. this seems like a great group of guys to root for.

Ultimately, this became one of my least favorite teams to root for over the past 20 years. There’s been plenty of bad teams, but those bad teams haven’t always been filled with self-important, pouty, blame-deflecting quitters like this one was.

If the Bears were to throw out their entire roster for next year, I’d have about nine objections. That’s it.

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The Deplorabulls

At the halfway mark, the Chicago Bulls are 18-23, in the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference.

When they finally decided to begin a (partial) teardown, I should have assumed even that wouldn’t go smoothly. Over the last three years, through 40 games, their record has been nearly identical.

Prior to the season, I wrote that “if anything, I’d advise the under on the Bulls win total of 27.5 this year.” Halfway through, they’re two thirds of the way to that mark.

Shout out to Billy Donovan, who does the best with what he has in purgatory.

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An April Fool

That Cubs hot start fooled me.

They ended up with a modest record, 83-79, and their run differential suggests they should have been closer to 88-74.

I looked at the first month of the schedule and thought, boy, if the Cubs can get through the first 30 games or so with a .500 or better record, it would be a major win.

Then the injuries picked up, in the outfield, in the bullpen, in the starting rotation. And still they came out hot.

May 3rd, 2024

It bears repeating: It is incredible that this team is 19-13 and one game out of first place right now.

As the season started, I zeroed in on around .500 as a bench mark by April’s end, given the schedule. Not only did the Cubs far exceed that mark, they did it without four very key pieces.

Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Justin Steele and Julian Merryweather have all missed extended time. Hector Neris has been a mess, and Kyle Hendricks was awful and then hurt.

If I read all that to you back in March, you’d assume the Cubs’ record were reversed right now, around 13-19, no?

…

The entire year has been a game of whack-a-mole, and yet, the Cubs have kept their heads above water.

…

The holes in the bullpen will be addressed, one way or another.

Until then, if the Cubs can even maintain 85% of their pace while Steele, Bellinger and Suzuki work their way back, just hand the Manager of the Year trophy over to Counsell in June.

Just hand the Manager of the Year trophy over to Counsell in June, he said.

The baseball season is long and grueling, particularly for the fans. Some semblance of hope is required to brave through 162, but the holes that would keep the Cubs from being a top team in the National League should have been apparent from the start.

No manager can fix that, and though I’m delighted to have Craig Counsell at the helm, I should have known better.

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Though Riley Leonard would argue otherwise, optimism, smiles, and prayer don’t take your team to the top. If Leonard is correct, Chicago is filled with heathens that will be sent to hell immediately after their last breath on earth.

But I have my suspicions.

The last year was filled with gaffes from your boy, publicly and privately. It was a year that gave us zero playoff appearances, and, really, zero runs at the playoffs.

The Bulls came closest, losing in the first of two potential single-elimination play-in games by double digits.

The Sox were the worst baseball team in modern history. The Cubs missed the playoffs again, by a considerable margin, and have not played in a legitimate playoff series since 2017. The Bulls remained in purgatory, and when an angel asked if they’d like to consider heaven, they said “uh, fuck you?” back to her. The Bears came into September with extraordinary hype and went on a 10-game losing streak.

In 2025, things can absolutely get worse. That’s one thing I’ve learned over the years.

But I can be better. Onward.

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It seems the Chicago Bears are going to completely botch another hiring cycle, and I may be reaching a breaking point.

Since the Bears fired Lovie Smith, the Bears have missed out on the best candidate each cycle, and ended up instead with Marc Trestman, John Fox, Matt Nagy, and Matt Eberflus.

They’ve not just missed out on the best candidates in those cycles, either. The Bears have had the chance, particularly over the last few years, to hand over the keys to surefire coaches. Football leaders guaranteed to turn any wayward ship around. Leaders like John Harbaugh and Sean Payton.

But it’s just like before.

Every Bears head coaching search is basically a dramatic rendition of proving “survivor bias.”

The Bears are never diagnosing any of their core problems, they’re just slightly changing course from what they did in the previous hiring cycle. They’re looking at the wrong information. Defensive guy? Let’s go offensive. Former head coach? Let’s go with a coordinator. And so on and so forth.

In the past, the best candidates have been snatched up from under the Bears as they pitter pattered around. The same is happening now.

Mike Vrabel has already been hired. The Bears could have interviewed him weeks ago in person. They elected not to. They waited, and waited. Then had a couple of Zoom meetings.

Their first two in-person interviews were with Mike McCarthy and Ron Rivera.

The Bears didn’t want Ron Rivera around when he actually was useful to the organization. Now that he’s a has-been, the Bears are bringing him in town for an interview. It’s comical.

McCarthy is an awful candidate for the Bears head coach position. He would be on his third coaching stop, and he has done nothing to prove that he is capable of turning a bad operation into a good one.

In Green Bay, he was the beneficiary of Aaron Rodgers, and all the Packers organization has to offer. In both of his head coaching stints, the infrastructure was already there. He just had to usher in top-10 offenses with top-10 quarterbacks.

Because they’ve hired two unproven coordinators in a row, the Bears are looking for a “proven” head coach. In McCarthy, they have a guy who has won a lot of games, but has never dealt with all the shortcomings the Bears offer. And the Bears don’t realize that because they are somehow unaware of those shortcomings.

Halas Hall wreaks of unwarranted arrogance, of seriously unfathomable hubris.

Other organizations that have had dry spells, embarrassments, and “bad luck” have looked for ways out. The Broncos missed the playoffs for years, and gave a blank check to Sean Payton. The Chargers did the same for Harbaugh. The Bears considered neither.

Speaking of luck, Caleb Williams landed in the laps of this front office. He alone should have made the Bears the best opening, arguably by far. Instead, Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel may both end up passing on it because of yet another disastrous, misguided process.

Johnson may take a job with the Raiders, who are still paying at least three other fired coaches, and who have no clear way to obtain a real quarterback.

And before we move on from McCarthy, George McCaskey, aren’t you embarrassed? The Chicago Bears are going to gobble up the Packers’ sloppy seconds? Call me old school, but the idea of hiring the former 12-year head coach of the Packers is vomit-inducing.

It’s not even like taking Ben Johnson from the Lions either, which would actually hurt a division rival. It’s not like hiring Mike Tice as an assistant years after he left the Vikings, where he didn’t win much at all. It’s hiring a successful Packer coach who was eventually canned by them. We’re bowing to the enemy, and not even hurting them in the process.

McCarthy has no real “leader of men” qualities, either. He’s constantly being undermined by players, constantly in states of flux with his teams, even when they’re winning.

He’ll bring all of that to Chicago, except for the winning.

Winning with the 2010s Packers and the 2020s Cowboys does not mean anything for this Bears team. It’s akin to suggesting that, because a teacher taught english well in Illinois, he or she is guaranteed to teach english well in China.

The only similarities between those two jobs and the Bears job is football and the NFL. That will be immediately evident at McCarthy’s opening press conference if he is hired. Even if we’re taking Vrabel and Johnson off the table, McCarthy isn’t even the best former head coach available.

Pete Carroll is a far more successful football coach than McCarthy, and has twice turned around football programs that were rudderless. He’s 12 years older than McCarthy, but let’s see some bloodwork from both.

If the Bears lose out on Johnson and Vrabel — the top two candidates — it won’t even be because they’ve failed. And they fail often. But this will be because they didn’t even try.

The Raiders are going balls to the wall right now for Johnson, and they’ll likely get him because of it. And not just because of that, but also because of the Bears’ inaction. You would think they were coming off of four straight Super Bowl appearances. Nope, just a decade and a half without a playoff win.

The “best” candidates don’t always work out. But when is the last time the Bears even hired one of the best candidates?

Let’s hope David Shaw, Mike Kafka, Thomas Brown, and Drew Petzing had good ideas for the future of the Bears over Zoom.

Time and again, the Bears have had ways to get out of the mess they’ve gotten themselves into. But they refuse to take those opportunities, and instead dig their feet in further.

If the Bears botch this hire, which it looks like they will, I will seriously have to consider my fandom moving forward. This is not posturing.

I won’t pick a new team, I won’t stop watching football. But I may have to go cold turkey off the news cycles, and ween myself away from the baffling madness. The amount of anger I feel toward the organization, which couldn’t run a food truck properly, is unhealthy.

I’ll have to come back in a few years as a casual fan, who makes buffalo chicken dip for games and says, “who’s winning?” in a crucial moment in the fourth quarter. The organization doesn’t deserve the die-hards, and we don’t deserve to be whipped around the circus by clowns year in, and year out.

As ridiculous as it sounds, this shit consumes me. I think about it intermittently throughout every day. Seeing them make the same mistakes, happily, and then just continuing to ponder it all is genuinely becoming an untenable proposition for me.

#BEARDOWN

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Thank you reading another edition of Still Gotta Come Through Chicago! I’ll see you all next week. Comment below, subscribe at the top!