Happy Friday Chicago!
Almost 25 years ago now, in March, Rick Pitino — then the Celtics coach — famously let fans know that “Larry Bird was not walking through that door.”
As we embark on this month and all it has to offer, I feel my inner dialogue telling me the same: The younger you is no longer strapping his shoes on. And if he does, he needs to stretch — he needs a concrete plan, a good meal beforehand, and an exit strategy.
There will be no “day drinks” lasting from first tip of the 11:00 ams to the final buzzer of the 10 pms on the first days of the NCAA tournament.
At 24 years old, the 21-year-old me didn’t feel far away. Now it does. When I gear up for St. Patrick’s Day and March Madness this year, my prime will be nothing but a memory.
My 90s Bulls years are nothing but banners in the rafters, but “Sirius” still plays before all the games. The anticipation is the same. And that keeps me going. I’m not giving in.
In this year and the subsequent ones, I’ll just be adjusting my game.
Grant Hill was the next Michael Jordan until injuries stole his athleticism from him. But he didn’t retire, and I won’t retire from the fun of March just because when I binge drink I feel like I’m in a dream until the following Wednesday morning.
What I will do is pick my spots, just like Hill learned to do. There won’t be any high-flying dunks from me, no 40-point outbursts capitalized by a game winner.
But there will be a lot of crisp passes, a lot of open jumpers made. A savvy pick on behalf of a teammate, and a deflection or two on the other end in crucial situations. I’m a role player now, and that’s fine.
Whether you’re in your prime or past it, there’s always a role for you — in Chicago — in the month of March.
‘Survivor Exhilaration’ takes over. You made it past the worst of it. It’s time to come out of your hovel. It’s time to get back to your life. It’s time to get back to college basketball, to get back to navigating crowds filled with people on the brink of vomiting.
Some of the best memories I have in the city are from this time of year, and that’s coming from a Fall Supremacist.
Even further back, Springtime childhood memories have held on in my brain longer than others have, doing so by attaching themselves to a specific time, specific events within that time, and above all else, that specific feeling.
Outside of throwing a kid out from shortstop on the first play of my first T-ball game — and the “adults” inexplicably allowing that kid to stay on first base, leading to my anger throwing my father into a wheezing laughter — all my memories from this time of year revolve around basketball.
Basketball is central to some of those memories, but more than anything, it’s a backdrop.
I’d be watching every game in my childhood basement. If I was lucky, my mom was vaguely aware of March Madness and ordered pizza. If I was luckier, she allowed me to have a friend over — on a week night, no less! And if I was the luckiest, the window was cracked with a breeze rolling in.
The holidays end in December. Football ends in January, and then again in February. School starts again, and so does work.
But now, at this point, we give ourselves permission to be excited again.
As a kid, you didn’t have to give yourself permission to be excited. You just were.
There may be checks and balances to happiness now, but you can still let that happiness creep past the guards — particularly at this point. Let it through! Play the music!
Even if you haven’t watched a lick of college ball this year, you’re the audience for today’s Definitive, Incomplete Guide To March Madness.
College basketball is unique in that everyone’s lives are impacted by it in some small way — whether you like it or not. March Madness is second-coming of the holidays: people work less, drink more, and are increasingly willing to see each other, at least for a short-lived period. They’re even willing to engage in silly office games that are usually only inorganically brought on by HR.
College basketball has become less like football (where everyone who enjoys the sport watches at least a couple of the same games per week) and more like baseball (where most pick their spots on which divisions/conferences/teams to pay attention to).
That takes some of the allure away from the sport, as did fewer four-year players becoming mainstays at a school for what seemed like full portions of our lives.
But most of that goes out the window when this time of year returns.
And that’s why, despite the general Chicago-based ethos of this newsletter, I decided to commit to writing up this Definitive, Incomplete Guide to March Madness.
It may be the worst thing I’ve ever written here. But it may have been worth it.
Nevertheless, I hope it helps, and if it doesn’t, I hope it entertains.
If you do not care about the college basketball chatter, the Bears and Bulls sections follow.
The Definitive, Incomplete Guide to March Madness
I’ll preface this all by saying that I do not know nearly as much about college basketball as I once did. And most of my knowledge this year comes from waterboarding myself with it over the last month.
Dee Brown is my favorite college basketball player of all time, and he just won Coach of the Year at Roosevelt University in Chicago. That gives you a good perspective on where I stand, generally, with college basketball. My fandom is mostly washed up.
But daytime, chaotic basketball will never be out of style, or uninteresting.
I’ll start with a word on court storming. I generally like Duke, mostly because I am a massive fan of Chicago native Coach K. I also like Chicagoland area native Jon Scheyer. But it’s Fuck Duke this year, after their star center faked like he was injured was injured when Wake Forest stormed the court on them earlier this year. He was somehow fine the next game.
(No questions on Caitlin Clark at this time. Go Hawks.)
I can’t get behind that victim mentality when it comes to court storming.
Not only is court storming one of the very best parts of college basketball, it also hardly ever results in actual injuries. Is it dangerous? No. It’s just more dangerous than players walking off the court without fans rushing on it. That’s the difference, and it’s a big difference.
Plus, even if there is a little danger in it, do I really care? That sounds like an awful thing to say, but some things in life come with a small amount of inherent danger.
Walking around in Chicago is semi-dangerous. But it’s not going to stop your boy from getting to and from work.
I don’t care that much if one person gets mildly injured once every 100 court storms. And I’m not afraid to say it anymore.
Anyways, Duke is very good this year — not great. But they will not be receiving my backing due to that nonsense.
As for other murmurs around college basketball, don’t get me started on expanding the field. Stop now. Stop expanding everything, and stop changing things that are already perfect.
What most people love the most about the NCAA tournament is the upsets. I concur. But it’s worth noting that the seeds most likely to upset a higher seed are, well, higher seeds themselves.
The goal of this is for you to obtain at least a few facts to throw out there in a casual conversation at work or at the bar. Here’s the first.
Since 1985:
—16-seeds have defeated 1-seeds 1.32% of the time (only two instances, both in recent years).
—15-seeds have defeated 2-seeds 7.24% of the time
—14-seeds have defeated 3-seeds 14.47% of the time
—13-seeds have defeated 4-seeds 21.05% of the time
— 12-seeds have defeated 5-seed 34.87% of the time
—11-seeds have defeated 6-seeds 38.16% of the time
— 10-seeds have defeated 7-seeds 38.82% of the time
I hate to burst bubbles here, but what you can see from the above is: the closer the seeds are, the more likely there is to be an upset. Ditch that “got to pick a 12-5 upset” mantra, and make people feel stupid for saying it.
Or, better yet, explain that, statistically, a 12-seed is likely to beat a 5-seed, but that it’s not more likely — historically — that a 12-seed will beat a 5-seed than it is for an 11-seed to beat a 6-seed.
Even better, pick a bunch of upsets and don’t give a shit about what the statistics say.
On statistics
Speaking of statistics, there’s been a rise in analytics usage in the college game, too. Has it resulted in more NBA-looking ball? Not even close. The game is usually still ugly as all get out by an NBA viewer’s standard.
But teams like Alabama are led by coaches like Nate Oats who are ardent supporters of analytics.
Using analytics to dictate shot selection works far better in the NBA, where you have better players with better basketball IQ. But it also works a lot better in the NBA because you have an 82-game sample size in the regular season, and a 7-game sample size in the playoffs.
In other words, your math is far more likely to pay off.
Now, I’m a believer in analytics. It’s just another fancy word for a tool that can make your team better. Shoot more threes. Get to the free throw line. Aim for lay-ups. Use your best shooters to shoot, use your best big men to get to the rim, etcetera.
But, analytics still do annoy me, even if I have to admit they need to be a part of the process. I hate the idea of “solving” a competitive sport.
That’s why I love college basketball. Because in a win-or-go-home tournament, the math equation doesn’t always apply! And thus, it makes me happy when teams like Alabama go home early — because we get to shit on analytical coaches for the wrong reasons and because Alabama shouldn’t be good at basketball.
There’s also KenPom, the system created by Ken Pomeroy, which almost always gets the rankings generally right.
That system, of late, has loved Houston. Houston is the best defensive team in the country. But seemingly every year, they run into an injury on the verge of the tournament (and they did again this year).
Indiana fans — and others — may hate Houston because of their coach, Kelvin Sampson. That’s fine.
But some people don’t like Houston because they are the antithesis of new-age basketball. Every game they play in, for the most part, is ugly. And I love it. When they played Iowa State — the second-best defensive team in the country, behind Houston — it was a rock fight. But every basket felt like a cause for celebration, which is lost sometimes in today’s game.
As Indiana Pacers Head Coach Rick Carlisle said recently: scoring points is a lot of fun. But so is dating a pretty girl. After a while, dating a pretty girl gets boring if she can’t defend anyone.
Well said, coach.
I like Houston because they represent the different ways in which you can win in college basketball. Team playing styles are super similar in the NBA, but in college, different teams in different conferences still play differently.
Now, in between all of this is Tennessee, which 1) also should not be good at basketball 2) is led by Rick Barnes, who is considered a “bad tournament coach” 3) is 8th in the country defensively 4) and has one of the most electrifying players in the country.
Dalton Knecht is everything Purdue’s Zach Edey is not. Where Edey puts up numbers by using his height and annoying the other team, the viewer, and maybe his own teammates, Knecht is one of those special, ball-handling college basketball players that only comes around ever so often.
A transfer from Northern Colorado — (he was originally going to go to Indiana) — Knecht was enlisted to turn Tennessee into something more than just a Houston. In other words, a team that can defend, but also has a go-to scoring threat. He’s one of the few players on power-conference teams averaging more than 20 points per game.
The others? Namely, the aforementioned Edey, Illinois’ Terrance Shannon Jr. (probably not a good guy to cheer for), Alabama’s Mark Sears, and North Carolina’s RJ Davis, among a few others.
On coaches
Ultimately, coaches — and players — losing in the NCAA tournament shouldn’t tarnish their legacy. The NCAA tournament is specifically great because the best team does not always win.
Purdue’s Matt Painter is a fabulous coach that has had some gut-wrenching losses in the NCAA tournament. But he gets there enough that his time will likely, eventually, come — like it did for Virginia’s Tony Bennett.
Being a good coach in the NCAA tournament is almost an entirely different skill than being a good regular season coach. Some are good at one, some are good at the other. But you have to be good at the first one to be good at the other one.
That’s why the best coaches, in my mind, are the coaches that mastered both. The Coach Ks, the Bob Knights, the Jim Calhouns, the Jim Boeheims, the Roy Williams’, the Dean Smiths.
And, for the most part, there’s a new guard in college coaching.
It was devastating to see K, Williams and Boeheim (and Huggins, can I guy have a drink anymore in his car?) all leave in such short order. College basketball coaches are the lifeblood of the sport. They’re the long-lasting personalities, the ones that make specific teams hold onto identities for more than a year.
What about the ones that are still around, though?
Tom Izzo — Izzo has appeared to be on his way out at a few points over the last five years. But he has persisted past each point. Because that’s what Tommy Izzo does. He doesn’t have a great team this year (likely to be a 9 or 10 seed), but he does hold onto that March mystique, even in 2024.
John Calipari — Calipari actually may be out as Kentucky head coach sooner rather than later, despite being rewarded a “lifetime contract.” As usual, Kentucky is stacked to the brim with talent … and just okay. They’ll be in the 3-5 seed range, depending on how they perform in the conference tournament.
Bill Self — The Kansas Jayhawks have been one of the best teams in country nearly every year for what seems like forever now. Self is more under-the-radar than his peers, and likely has committed more NCAA violations than all of them combined. But his demeanor keeps him out of trouble. I’ll always love him for recruiting the Illinois teams of the mid-2000s before he left for Kansas. But, this year, Kansas is not atop the Big 12 as they usually are. Houston and Iowa State are. And the Jayhawks are one of the worst shooting teams I’ve watched all year. They can’t make a three. They’ll still likely be a 3ish seed, but I’d put zero confidence behind them in the tournament.
Rick Pitino — He just can’t quit, and I can’t quit him. He’s been up to his usual antics. He has donned his white suit on the sideline, he’s said his team sucked and he can’t wait until next year. And yet, St. Johns could sneak in the tournament in his first year there. Though that remains to be seen.
Honorable mentions: Mark Few, who has a worse Gonzaga team than usual, but still a good one; Barnes; Sampson; the mild-mannered, but national-championship winning, Scott Drew of Baylor (who has another good team this year); and maybe Ed Cooley, whose Georgetown team sucks ass.
On conferences
The conferences are completely out of whack if you haven’t paid close attention over the last decade.
The Big Ten mostly sucks, besides Purdue and Illinois. And both those schools, under their current head coaches, generally disappoint in the tournament. What’s noteworthy about the Big Ten is the scrappy teams, however.
Nebraska — led by the former Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg — is set to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in 10 years. They are also the only power-conference team to never win an NCAA tournament game. They’re actually a pretty fun watch, too. I’m happy for Hoiberg.
Also relevant to Chicago is Northwestern, who is set to make the tournament in back-to-back years for the first time in program history. They have what probably is the best player in program history in Boo Buie still at the helm. But what makes them relevant to Chicago (to me) is not their location, and instead their coach, Chris Collins, the son of another former Bulls head coach — Doug Collins.
Nebraska and Northwestern, leading the charge of the second pack in the Big Ten. What a time.
The Big Ten is worse than the Big 12, which we’ve already gone over. They’re probably worse than the SEC, which makes me physically sick to my stomach.
Alabama is not nearly as good as they were last year, but Tennessee is better with Knecht. Kentucky is still Kentucky, for the reasons listed above. And then there’s Auburn, who has become somewhat of a basketball school, along with (huh?) South Carolina to round out the conference top-5.
The Big Ten is better than the final version of the Pac-12, however. After Arizona, there’s a surprisingly solid Washington State team and then a Colorado team that somehow has two projected first-round draft picks.
I say “somehow” because I watched Colorado play USC, tried to figure out who those projected picks were on my own, and couldn’t do it. Speaking of USC, they’re 12-17 and the (former) projected first-round draft pick Bronny James is averaging 5 points per game. I sincerely hope he can enjoy his college experience now without his dad suggesting he’s better than half the NBA or demanding he come play with him there.
The ACC is led by two uninspiring versions of Duke and North Carolina. I wouldn’t trust either team in the tournament.
Then there’s the Big East, by far my favorite conference to watch this year.
I purposely did not mention Danny Hurley above, as he is a part of the new guard. He’s my favorite coach in the country and the one most likely to become of the ilk of the legends mentioned above. UConn obviously won the championship last year, but they’re nearly as good this year. They shoot well, defend well, and are just tough. They’ll be a shoe-in for a final four spot on my bracket.
But, past UConn, the dynamics are just fantastic in this new (and kind of old?) Big East. Creighton is awesome, still led by Greg McDermott. Marquette is awesome, led by former VCU (and Texas) coach Shaka Smart.
Seton Hall is competitive, and so is Providence without Ed Cooley (who is in the same conference, at Georgetown). Those two teams are part of the middle pack in the Big East that makes it enjoyable, along with St. Johns, Villanova, Xavier and Butler.
The Big East could be the last true college conference we have in football or basketball. A conference with a genuine identity, and less constant realignment.
What else?
There’s plenty of players to highlight, including the Indiana State phenom Robbie Avila, who plays college basketball like he’s a savvy 45-year-old at a local park. He’s been dubbed Cream Abdul-Jabar, based on the color of his skin.
I won’t be able to highlight everyone here, though.
While there’s familiar names at the top of the rankings — Arizona, UConn, Purdue, UNC, Duke — there’s also non-power conference teams toward the teens and twenties, such as St. Marys, South Florida, San Diego State (remember them?), and Utah State.
While the tournament is always fun, I think this year’s could be especially enjoyable for the first two weekends.
Or it won’t be. Either way, I’ll enjoy it.
And that was the definitive, incomplete guide to 2024 March Madness.
I’ll be out on a vacation next week, which is why I published this ahead of time.
At long last, there’s something concrete to talk about in Bears world, and it’s not Caleb Williams and Justin Fields.
The Bears signed Jaylon Johnson to a 4-year, $76 million contract Thursday. The average annual salary is $19 million — less than he was reportedly asking for — and puts him just outside of the top-5 for corners.
But the deal does include $54 million guaranteed, which is the largest number for a corner. $43.8 million is fully guaranteed at the signing.
Johnson turned 25 yet, and was by many metrics (PFF and Aaron Shatz’s DVOA included) the best corner in football last year. He dominated in a contract year and got what he deserved.
Here’s how I’m looking at this: Would I have been pissed off if someone else signed him to this deal? The answer is yes, and thus, I’m very happy about it.
The Bears are in a great position with the cap. They have plenty of space and will likely have a rookie QB salary for the next four years.
Ryan Poles played this the right way. They rewarded one of their best, homegrown players, at a deal that made sense for both sides. That’s two players signed after their rookie deals in less than a year (Cole Kmet, too), if you’re keeping track. We’re on the up and up, ladies and gents!
No reservation about Johnson has ever come from his play. He’s basically been lights-out since he entered the league.
The question has always been about whether he can stay on the field. But, with a player this good, I think it’s the right calculated risk. You can’t let go of every player with injury concerns, and Johnson has only missed 2, 1, 5, and 3 games in each of his NFL years.
I would highly doubt he plays 17 games in any year out of the next four. Still, that price point seems reasonable for 13-15 games of next-level production.
With all of the safeties available in free agency, that market is likely to be depressed. I don’t think the Bears will have a problem filling out the rest of their defensive needs, whether through the draft or through free agency.
Now, the attention turns to the offense.
Chicago is so hungry for football again that Ryan Bates being traded to the Bears for a 5th-round pick earlier this week hit my phone like we just traded for Pat Mahomes.
I doubt Bates will be a surefire starter next year. But I do know he can play center better than anyone we had last year, and I also know the Bears are in desperate need of insurance behind Nate Davis and Teven Jenkins. The Bears tried to sign Bates in 2022, but the Bills had his rights. Now, Poles got his guy — and for a 5th round pick in a draft that is allegedly “top-heavy.”
The excitement is building. No more Caleb Williams talk until April.
But, when it does come, the boys and I may have to do the most loser thing imaginable: throw on some Bears jerseys, drink beers, and celebrate after each and every Bears move on draft night. I may even paint my face.
Forgive me father, for I have sinned.
Yes, I went to bed before the Bulls mounted a 22-point, second-half comeback on the road in Sacramento on Monday.
The Bulls have somehow, someway started off a 4-game road trip with wins over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors. All three came in “clutch” games, or games decided by 5 points or less in the final 5 minutes.
One of the things I wrote about before the season — as a reason for the Bulls going over their 37.5-win line — was clutch performance.
Clutch performance is generally random. The Bulls were great in those games two years ago, and awful in them last year. This year, they’re one of the best.
Even if it doesn’t seem like it, the Bulls technically have three of best “clutch” players in the NBA — Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, and DeMar DeRozan — mostly because they’ve played in so many close games.
DeRozan had an incredible, basically game-winning And-1 tonight in Golden State. He had 19 and 17 in the fourth quarters of the Kings and Jazz games. He can be frustrating at times, but he’s still really good at 34 (the Bulls should have traded him).
The Bulls are just one game below .500 now, which means they will definitely lose their next game to the Clippers Saturday. But I’ll be locked in for a little matinee action, even if they’re all but locked into the 9th seed.
While clutch performances may be somewhat random, there’s something to be said about the Bulls unwillingness to give up. When Sabonis was dunking every time down the floor and the Bulls were down 20 late in the fourth in Sacramento, I gave up. The fellas did not.
That credit goes to Billy Donovan. For the Bulls to be unwilling to give up, on the road, to superior teams, is not nothing in the NBA.
It’s also credit to Zach LaVine, who’s actually so bad in tight games late that I think it has partially changed the Bulls’ fortunes.
Coby White is essentially getting those LaVine touches now. He’s not only better, but I also rarely see him make a dumb mistake. Even his missed shots and turnovers are justifiable. He’s a star.
Outside of a few guys, though, the Bulls really aren’t that talented. That’s what makes their 26-18 run since their 5-14 start so remarkable.
Ayo Dosunmu is playing like a top-4 player on the roster. Coby White, for my money, is the most improved player in the NBA. DeMar is still DeMar.
I love some of the bench guys, but I love them in a “I love that rascal” way more than a “he’s really good at basketball” way. But I like rooting for confident and caring rascals. (See: the 2012-2013 Bulls)
The road to .500 has been longer than expected. There’s an exit in the distance, though.
LETS GO BULLS!
Thank you for reading, as always. Forward to your friends, subscribe them against their will, and comment below:
Don't give up too early on the "First Beer at 11am and last one at 10:30 pm March Madness Day". You 60 year old father will do exactly that on the first day of the tournament. Best consecutive weekends in sports.
Billy Donovan is a mystery. He pulls off this three game west coast road trip win streak just after losing to the Pistons for the second time this year. WTF?
And lastly, you were a pain in the a-- in T-Ball. Because you were so pissed that kid stayed on the base that you kept tagging him as he advanced each at bat followed by looking around confused saying "thats three outs".
About a month ago, I was having conversations about which FA the Bears would target. There were so many options. Would they jump on a WR, knowing there's a good chance each of the "big 3" would be gone by pick 9? But after all the franchise tags, there isn't many guys left that would improve the offense. Pittman, Evans, Higgins all off the table. If Odunze and Nabers both go early, I think we have to trade back to 15-20, snag a WR (Thomas Jr.) and pick up a 2nd in the process. We have 3 big defensive contracts with JJ, Sweat, and Edmunds (and thankfully got Edwards for peanuts). Would Poles still make a splash for Wilkins or Jones? We have money to spend so I think it is inevitable that we overpay for a couple guys. But we still have holes at safety, another edge, wr, and center. Going to be interesting to see what Fields yields, but regardless I love the spot we are in. #1 defense weeks 10-17 and we got better.