Still Gotta Come Through Chicago

Honey, We Need to Talk About Justin

Good morning Chicagoans. Happy Friday.

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The fall weather is here. And what I always wonder about fall weather is how non-sports fans describe it without sports as a vehicle to do so.

Like, for instance, a verbatim text from one of my group chats this week: “It’s literally perfect out. Makes me wanna tailgate and suck down 20 beers.”

Ernest Hemingway could not have written that more eloquently. I had not gone outside yet, but I already knew what it would feel like once I did.

For me personally, this kind of weather evokes feelings of football — of playing it, watching it, or partaking in those above-mentioned pregame activities.

But it also makes me think of playoff baseball. Or, even the pennant race coming to a close — when your team is on the home stretch and there are a few games left post-clinch that don’t mean anything but feel like a second spring training with better weather.

I particularly think of the 2015 Cubs playoff run, which is almost more memorable for me than the eventual 2016 run.

All of those feelings bring memories of time gone by. Of players you didn’t know and friends you may not know as well now, all through the lens of the sports that took place at this particular time of year.

Come to think of it, people who live outside of the Midwest may be void of these feelings about September, October and November completely.

Two graphs from Liev Shcrieber’s narration in “Michigan-Ohio State: The Rivalry.”

Every year on the third Saturday in November, amidst a Midwestern haze and the rustle of autumn leaves, the Michigan Wolverines and the Ohio State Buckeyes meet for a football game. Twelve months of fevered anticipation are played out on a frosted green canvas upon which strokes of maize and blue crash with scarlet and gray.

An autumn ritual, the Michigan/Ohio State rivalry is as ingrained in Midwestern culture as stoicism and self-reliance. Like the fruits of the season’s harvest, the game is a gift.

This time of the year is a gift. Enjoy it while you can.

Maybe those non-sports watchers do find a sense of nostalgia in the weather, too, who knows. I care as much about their opinions as I do Aaron Judge’s at-bats during a college football game I bet on, so I will take this mystery into tomorrow.

It’s a darn shame that I missed the newsletter last week, because although I hate to talk about last week’s news, I just have to comment on these Justin Fields comments from after the Packers game.

To preface, Fields said all the right things and then some in his press conference the following week. He didn’t need to, though, what he said — in context — was fine. Here’s what he did say after the 27-10 loss to the Packers, for background:

"It hurts more in the locker room than [for] the Bears fans. At the end of the day, they aren't putting in any work. I see the guys in the locker room every day. I see how much work they put in. Coming out of a disappointing loss like this, it hurts."

Part of what he said after, which makes sense, is that he just doesn’t know a ton of fans personally. Obviously he knows the guys in the locker room. He understands his pain and his teammates’ pain more after the loss.

But let’s bridge that disconnect. Maybe we can reach young Justin through this newsletter to let him know how guys and gals like us live on the other side of the television set, on the other side of the walls that separate the field from the stands.

So here it goes. My open letter to Justin…

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Dear Justin,

You work for the Bears for a living. I watch the Bears by choice. The losses hurt even more when the hurt didn’t have to be there in the first place.

Your disappointment comes from losing or playing poorly. In other words, if we’re going to compare this to all of our day jobs — a fool’s errand, for sure — you experienced failure in your job and felt bad about it.

We experienced failure in our jobs Monday through Friday just to be able to get to week’s end and then feel that failure with you on Sunday. And our hurt was not isolated to that Sunday’s game. We saw the Packers beat us in the NFC Championship game, in a winner-takes-all game in the final game of the season, and just in general, pretty much every time we’ve played them over the last 20 years.

I’ve gone to three Bears games in the last five years.

Here are some facts and figures to go along with that. Of course, these are not your fault. In fact, they are mine. But context is a bridge to understanding in this situation, young man.

Washington Commanders 41, Chicago Bears 21. I took my shirt off at this game. It didn’t work, Justin. We beared down, but the players did not. Matt Barkley was our starting quarterback. It was Christmas Eve and one of my friends ruined the holiday for his family because he got too drunk and passed out at the party.

Game time weather: 35 degrees with an overcast.

Chicago Bears 20, Cleveland Browns 3. The Bears picked up their 5th win of the season against an 0-15 Browns team. It was 6-3 at halftime. I bet $100 I didn’t have on the Bears to eventually win $36. It was one of the best days of my life.

Game time weather: 23 degrees, heavy snow, and what they call an “ice fog.” Not sure what that is.

Kansas City Chiefs 26, Chicago Bears 3. I waved my supplied white towel hard on third downs, Justin. But evidently not hard enough. Our beloved PA announcer’s last game was celebrated by him repeatedly saying “Mahomes to Hill for 36 yards. First down” as I sadly de-accelerated my towel-waving motion. The Bears passed on Patrick Mahomes in the draft three years prior, and he mocked us for it mid-game. In the middle of the game, Justin.

I didn’t have a ride home that night. Two of my friends Irish goodbyed us at halftime. That’s not your fault. Nor can you blame them for leaving. You can blame those pieces of shit for leaving without letting me know as I returned to our empty seats with my hands trembling and two cold Miller Lites in my hands, but those scores can be settled another day. The only score that mattered that night was the one on the jumbotron.

Nonetheless, I was left to take the L home by myself while contemplating another Bears season that had come and gone with nothing to show for. When I got off the Harlem Green Line stop as the clock turned Midnight, I put my head down and darted for the Dunkin Donuts across the way. I ate three donuts on my walk home as I once again contemplated what I had just seen, this time at least with the chocolatey goodness temporarily easing my pain.

But that was just temporary, my dear quarterback. As your pain after the loss was. My pain, it lasts for much longer.

I woke up the next morning and worked a full day for the man anyway, waiting for the next time I could cheer on my Chicago Bears.

Game time weather: 42 degrees. But don’t let that fool you. It was cold as fuck in the upper level of Soldier Field.

I don’t call you a young man because you’re all that younger than me biologically. After all, we’re quite close in age. You are a young man to me based on the pain that the Bears struggles have brought you. I didn’t attend Ohio State and make the College Football Playoffs either.

In fact, eight days before your national championship bout against Alabama, the Packers beat the Bears 35-16. I watched that, too.

When the weather turns cold in Chicago, us Bears fans don’t flee for warmer weather. Our only hope is that the Bears can bring us some sort of warmth during the colder months. Historically, that has been about as good of a plan to feel warm as attacking the Russians in the winter to win a war.

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Now that we’ve gotten past that education, it’s time for all of you to learn something. It seems everyone that wanted to give Mitch Trubisky 400 chances — and still thinks he’s worth a shit, even though the Steelers are dying to move onto their backup QB — is now out on Fields.

Yes, he played terribly Sunday. And no, things have not started out great for him, minus a few games: last year’s Steelers and 49ers games come to mind.

But this is exactly what I was warning everyone about before the year. You can look at last game in a vacuum and say he looked horrible. And that’s okay. But a sample size of 12 games with Matt Nagy on his way out, and three games with a new coaching staff and the worst pass catchers in the league, is not a sample size at all.

Extrapolating that Texans game and applying it across his entire NFL trajectory is ridiculous. Put the guns down, Chicago.

Fields has plenty of talent. Unlike Trubisky, we know that if nothing else. The guy was one of the best quarterbacks in the country for two straight years in college.

Let’s take a look at some of the facts about QB development in the NFL. Everyone likes to point to Peyton Manning’s poor rookie year, for instance, but we have far more recent examples to help us understand how we should judge Fields right now.

Here’s a look at the top 5 quarterbacks in the league thus far by passer rating:

1. In Lamar Jackson’s rookie year, he threw 6 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in seven games started. He played one of the worst playoff games I’ve ever seen by a quarterback against the Chargers. He was all but written off that offseason before winning an MVP the next year with the help of one of the three or four most sturdy organizations in the NFL.

2. Tua was a Twitter punchline all offseason. They were already treating himthe situation as Trubisky: Mahomes; Tua: Justin Herbert. Through 23 games, he had not shown the ability to be an NFL quarterback. His front office took a wide receiver high in the draft in Jaylen Waddle, they paid Tyreek Hill, and through three games before last night’s injury he had 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, a 71.5% completion percentage and a 3-0 record.

3. Patrick Mahomes did not even play in his rookie year, and came into one of the most mature offenses in the NFL, one that was 6th in points and 5th in yards the year prior with Alex Smith.

4. Josh Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now. Here are Fields’ and Allen’s first 13 starts stacked on top of each other, courtesy of Dan Durkin.

5. Jalen Hurts is another mobile, young quarterback that was an efficient passer in his last year at college. In his rookie year, he played four games and had 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions to show for with a 52% completion percentage. In his next year with a new regime, he had a mediocre year: 16 touchdowns on 9 interceptions with a 61.3% completion percentage. Like Tua, his front office got him Devonta Smith in the draft and traded for A.J. Brown. Just like that, thus far in 2022, he’s been one of the best QBs in the league — 4 Touchdowns to 1 interception, a 67% completion percentage, a 3-0 record, and 167 rushing yards.

6. Just out of the top 5 is Trevor Lawrence from Fields’ draft class. Under the Urban Meyer shit show last year, he was terrible. He had 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, a 59% completion percentage, and a 3-14 record. This year, he has 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, a 69% completion percentage and a 2-1 record. Oh, and his front office spent enough money on three wide receivers (namely Christian Kirk), a tight end, and a guard, among others, to break an NFL record for spending.

7. Even the best of the best that are still playing did not succeed after being thrown immediately into the fire. Tom Brady, of course, did not begin his career as a starter, and nor did Aaron Rodgers. When they did, they each came into situations where they were already playing for one of the premier teams in the NFL.

There are a couple major takeaways from this, in my opinion: the first is that although young quarterbacks are asked to play far more than they used to in the NFL, they still are rarely succeeding at a greater rate than they used to at that period in their careers. The second is that all many of these quarterbacks benefitted from a front office willing to spend on skilled players, something the Bears have basically done the opposite of. That does more to a player than just create sacks and prevent explosive plays. It throws off the entire offensive ecosystem.

Here, from Over The Cap, is a breakdown of the correlation of expected points added of offensive units relative to the dollars they’ve spent on their receiving corps:

This essentially proves that in today’s NFL, investing in skilled positions is not only worth it for an offense’s success — and in turn, a quarterback’s success — but imperative.

Worse yet, the Bears refuse to let Fields get into rhythm in the passing game, even with the receivers he does have. Whether they trust him or not shouldn’t be a question, as this year is essentially for Fields’ development alone — or at least it should be.

The above is based on Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), according to Fantasy Points Data. Essentially, PROE takes into account down, distance, and other situational factors to find a common variable. The Bears are dead last nearly every week.

The running game has been great, and the Bears are a not-so-talented team that’s 2-1, so you can’t necessarily blame the coaching staff. At the same time, you can, given what we said earlier about Fields’ development this year.

We are Chicago sports fans. What comes out of that is that we wouldn’t know a good QB if they punched us in the fucking face. At the same time, the top sports topics in this town are 1. What the Bears QB is doing right now 2. The Cubs, White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks.

Taking a step back every once in a while to analyze where Fields is truly at is worthwhile. Without it, we’ll run another QB out of town, and be back at square one without ever giving him the chance — or the tools — to end up like one of the top-5 QBs this year.

Feed me all your thoughts in the comment section:

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I can’t wait to write about the lowly, embarrassing, piece-of-shit White Sox at the conclusion of the season and the up-and-coming, exciting, compelling Cubs once the season comes to a close. These adjectives are all objective.

For now, it’s not worth it because neither is in a playoff race. The race is only to see how many less games the Cubs can win compared to the White Sox. Can we get within five? I think so!

More on that later.

And we can talk about the Bulls as the season nears. Three teasers for that next week: Lonzo Ball, Myles Turner, and Jae Crowder.

For now, let’s keep the eye on the city’s prize, which is the Bears.

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week at the New York Giants, who are on a short week and just not very good. Those three points are essentially a home-field adjustment.

I would love nothing more than a 300-yard performance from Fields, but that likely won’t happen. The main reason for that is because the Giants could not stop Ezekiel Elliot or Tony Pollard last week, so how could they stop THE Khalil Herbert?

Although the offense has been dreadful, I don’t see this as the week that Luke Getsy and co. mix up the playbook up and let things fly.

The Bears are 2-1, though, and have a very, very real chance of moving onto 3-1. It appears those worst-record bets won’t be cashed, and that seems due to general competence instilled by this coaching staff. That’s the good news. Some good news on Fields would deliver the other half that we need.

A few notes:

— Roquan Smith was obviously incredible last week, with 16 tackles and a game-sealing interception. But he didn’t practice last week with a hip injury, and was limited this week with a quad issue. I would put his over/under on games played this year right now at about 13.5. I think that missed training camp may just catch up with him. Jaylon Johnson is out again, and I’m afraid his durability is what will keep him from being a truly great player in the NFL. Let’s see if Daniel Jones can expose Kyler Gordon.

— I’ve been super impressed by the offensive line. The run blocking has been great, the pass blocking serviceable. It’s night and day compared to the two prior years. I would like for the rotations to be phased out completely, but we’ll take what we can get for the time being. Braxton Jones starting at left tackle and doing an OK job has really gone under the radar.

— David Montgomery’s injury doesn’t seem to be serious, thank God. But I’m not sure his absence will hurt all that much. Byron Pringle isn’t exactly a world beater, but another receiver down is definitely not ideal. Poles apparently said the Bears will be active in the trade market for another receiver. That makes zero sense to me. That’s acknowledging it’s a problem months after the problem should have been rectified.

The Bears are 2-1? The Bears are 2-1. Let’s get another one this Sunday? Yeah… Let’s do it! Bear Down.

Don’t forget to leave a comment below. Thank you so much for reading. I do appreciate it. Back next week — STILL GOTTA COME THROUGH CHICAGO!