Still Gotta Come Through Chicago

QB arguments that are hard to Bear

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Bear down and have a great Thursday, SGCTChicagoans.

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Today, we shift gears to the lakeside, to Soldier Field. But first — a reminder why we’re all here together in the first place.

Because our lord and savior Jesus Christ… just kidding.

Every morning, we’ll wake up, look the coronavirus directly in the eyes (from a distance), and say, ‘Have no fear, we’re gonna win this ball game.’

And then read Still Gotta Come Through Chicago. Let’s go.

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A Quarterback Controversy?

Whenever a national media personality suggests that there is some torch-bearing majority of Bears fans ready at the drop of the hat to defend Mitch Trubisky, it pisses me off. I could be wrong, but I feel like I have a pretty good feel of the pulse of Chicago’s sports fans, and I just don’t get the vibe whatsoever that there’s a contingency of Trubisky die-hards.

I never wavered in this belief until I heard people genuinely posing this question over the last week.

So… Trubisky or Foles?

I mean, what the hell are we doing here?

Forget that Matt Nagy called Mitch to reassure him that he hadn’t lost his job yet. Forget that he’s said there will be a fair QB competition and that Mitch will get the first reps whenever football starts again. That’s as reliable as the chatter when the season ended from Pace about Mitch still being the guy.

This is how coaches and GMs — with rare exceptions — speak publicly. What benefit would the Bears get from coming out and saying Nick Foles is the starter? Saying there will be a fair QB competition may be misleading, but it’s not a lie. I’m sure there will be a “fair” QB competition. But if you want the real answer as to who the Bears think is going to be the quarterback next year, like anything else in this world, follow the money.

The Bears just committed $24 million over three years, with $21 million guaranteed, to Nick Foles (more on this later). On the other hand, they haven’t picked up Trubisky’s fifth-year option, nor have they signed him to a new contract.

The Bears are pressed right up against the cap, and they didn’t slow spending down. In fact, they were top-5 in cash shelled out this offseason, with over $180 million given out in new contracts. A team that is that inflexible moving forward spending over $20 million-plus on a quarterback means that they ain’t happy with what they got on the roster right now.

I wrote in a newsletter the other week that if Pace gave up draft capital (a 4th rounder) and doled out that much cash for Foles, just to turn around and have him back up Trubisky, it would be executive suicide. That, I believe, is still the truth. This is Pace’s Hail Mary. If Foles doesn’t succeed at QB for the Bears, it is ova for him in the NFL as a decision-maker.

That’s unless, of course, Trubisky turns a corner that virtually no other QB has ever turned given the struggles he’s had in his first few years as a starter. Then, I guess, Pace would have that pick validated. But it would still make the Foles move look ridiculous in retrospect.

Foles is all in, as well. He agreed to the restructuring of his massive deal. He’s the one already getting on the StillGottaComeThroughChicago bandwagon, reiterating that it’s all about the team. Because that’s the kind of guy he is.

Jeff Joniak @JeffJoniak

New @ChicagoBears QB Nick Foles on conference call with reporters. Has spoken with Mitch Trubisky & ultimately they want what is best for team. "The guy who will lead the team, will lead the team." Support will come from each other. "I'm excited." @WBBMNewsradio

But I urge you again to follow the money. Do you think Foles would have restructured his deal for the Bears’ benefit if he believed he wouldn’t be the starter moving forward? Do you think he would’ve agreed to an incentive-laced contract, one that allows him to make up to $6 million more per year based on performance? No! That would be an asinine thing to do if you had any doubt in your mind as to whether you’d be the starter.

The most important point, still, is that Foles is a better QB. Judging him based on the minimal opportunities he was given as the Jaguars’ starter last year is not fair. The Jaguars are not in a win-now-or-else mode like the Bears are. That’s why they no longer had use for him.

By every traditional statistic and advanced statistic (accurate passing, in particular), Foles is the better QB. There is no reason to believe, no matter what the Bears say in public, that they aren’t planning on making him the starter come Week 1.

Decisions, Decisions

Robert Quinn, who signed a 5-year, $70 million ($30 million guaranteed) contract with the Bears, said that he decided between the Falcons and Bears based on a coin flip.

A coin flip was the difference between him being a Bear or not, and that may rub some loyal 4th phasers the wrong way, but the difference between Leonard Floyd and Quinn on the edge is no coin flip.

Not only is that good company, it’s beating that good company in the most significant pass rush statistic by a wide margin.

Furthermore:

Compared to Floyd, via NFL Next Gen Stats:

(The X axis represents how often the rusher is double-teamed, the Y axis represents how often the rusher beats the blocker in less than 2.5 seconds)

Need help finding Floyd? He’s with the no-names in the bottom left. Need help finding Quinn? He’s by or above both Bosas, Clowney, Smith, and Garrett on the top right.

An “upgrade” label doesn’t do this switch justice. This is a massive improvement for an already elite defensive line.

Hicks. Mack. Quinn. I get chills just thinking about it.

Coin flip, hat draw, whatever. I don’t care how he ended up in Chicago. I’d like to think the SGCTC gravitational forces pulled him our way. I’m just happy he’s here.

Who are you more excited about — Quinn or Foles? What do you think about Matt Nagy’s comments? Leave a comment and let’s get this Thursday going.

See you all tomorrow.